US TSYS/OVERNIGHT REPO: ON RRP Soars At Year-End, Well Below Prior Year's Level

RRP usage slips to $3.240B with 9 counterparties this afternoon from $7.561B Friday. Compares to last Tuesday November 18: $0.905B - lowest level since mid-March 2021; this years highest excess liquidity measure: $460.731B on June 30.

A new survey from MS Now has found that nearly 60 percent of Republicans favour the US taking military action in Venezuela. MS Now notes that “40% opposition among Republicans to a proposed Trump action is high, though that skepticism would likely wither should a military conflict actually begin.”

• The report also notes that Trump never explicitly positioned himself as an anti-war candidate, despite recent reports suggesting that a military operation in Venezuela would be in contravention of his 'America First' foreign policy pledge. 
• MS Now writes, “Trump never consistently committed to starting no new wars and, in fact, repeatedly suggested that he would use the threat of military action as a cudgel against foreign opponents. While he likely picked up some votes from people who believed that the line was forward-looking, most of his supporters (as is generally the case with supporters of a candidate) may have plucked that issue from the salad bar of rhetorical options reflecting positively on someone for whom they already planned to vote.”
• The survey may bolster the Trump administration's stance on military action ahead of an Oval Office meeting at around 17:00 ET 22:00 GMT to discuss the next steps for the military operation. See: SECURITY: Trump To Hold Meeting To Discuss Next Step On Venezuela Today - CNN

Figure 1: Would you Favour or Oppose the US Taking Military Action In Venezuela?

Source: MS Now

• RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 3: 1.1694 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg  
• RES 2: 1.1656 High Nov 13 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1652 High Dec 01
• PRICE: 1.1624 @ 16:42 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 1.1491/1469 Low Nov 21 / 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

The trend structure in EURUSD remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. Note that the pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, however, key short-term resistance to monitor is 1.1656, the Nov 13 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. Today’s gains cancel a doji reversal signal from last Thursday.  For bears, a resumption of weakness would open key support at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low.