EU-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week

OI data suggests that net short cover in TY futures provided the only real positioning swing of note on Tuesday, as the futures curve twist flattened.

• Instances of net short setting (TU) and short cover (UXY, US & WN) seen elsewhere were modest.
• The unchanged price status of FV makes it difficult to provide any meaningful inference when it comes to the modest net position build indicated by OI.

• Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position for EURUSD, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Despite a temporary breach of the 20-day EMA on May 29, prompted by the US trade court ruling against Trump's reciprocal tariffs, the pair has not had a daily close below since May 16.
• This average now intersects at 1.1356 and will be closely monitored over the US CPI data this afternoon. Firmer support is then seen at 1.1232, the 50-day EMA, of which a clear break would undermine the bull theme.
• Should the prevailing trend of greenback weakness dominate following the data, topside attention is on 1.1457 and 1.1495, last Friday’s high and the ECB peak respectively. Further out, the cycle high of 1.1573 remains the key bull trigger.
• ING state their bias is bearish on the dollar today – not just because of their core CPI call, but also amid reports that Tsy Sec Bessent is being considered as Powell’s successor, renewing threats to Fed independence. For EURUSD, they believe support is likely around 1.1400, with a potential push above 1.1500 by the week’s end should the data allow.
• As a reminder, Goldman Sachs recently rolled their EURUSD forecasts to 1.17, 1.20 and 1.25 in 3, 6 and 12 months (from 1.12, 1.15 and 1.20).

ERH6 98.50/98.25/97.75p fly bought for 2.75 in 3k.