SOFR & Treasury option flow centered around upside calls overnight, modest volumes so far as desks evaluate China's latest response to US raising levy to 104% yesterday with 84% tariff on US imports this morning. Underlying futures under pressure (10Y yield at 4.4367% at the moment), curves steeper but off overnight highs (2s10s currently +7.319 at 63.432 vs. 73.847 high). Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 have consolidated slightly vs. late Tuesday's levels - still pricing in a full point by year end, however. Current levels vs. late Tuesday (*) as follows: May'25 at -13.4bp (-14bp), Jun'25 at -37.9bp (-38.2bp), Jul'25 at -61.4bp (-61.6bp), Sep'25 -78.4bp (-79.3bp).
- SOFR Options:
- Block, 3,000 SFRU5 97.50/98.50 2x3 call spds, 10.5 ref 96.50
- 2,000 SFRH6 94.62/95.62 put spds ref 96.825
- 2,000 SFRM5 95.75/95.93/96.18/96.38 call condors ref 96.12
- over 8,100 SFRJ5 96.00 calls, 18.0 last ref 96.115
- 4,500 SFRU5 96.50/97.00 call spds ref 96.435
- 2,000 0QK5/2QK5 97.25 call spds
- 2,000 SFRM5 96.75/97.50 call spds vs. 2QM5 97.50/98.25 call spds
- 2,000 SFRM5 95.75/95.81/95.88 put trees ref 96.085
- Block/screen, 13,000 SFRM5 96.50/97.25 call spds ref 96.125
- Block, 5,000 SFRK5 95.81/95.93/96.00/96.06 broken call condors, 5.0 ref 96.155
- Block, 4,000 SFRM5 95.62 puts, 1.0 ref 96.18
- Treasury Options:
- 3,500 FVM5 110.5/111 call spds ref 108-07
- 2,000 FVK5 106.25/106.5/107/107.25 put condors ref 108-04.25
- 2,000 wk3 TY 110.75/112 strangles ref 110-22 (exp 4/17)
- over 4,600 TYM5 112 calls, 60 ref 110-24
- over 10,300 USK5 113 puts, 143 last
- over 11,000 USK5 116 calls, 131 last
- 5,200 USK5 117/120 call spds, 25 ref 114-12 to -11
- over 6,000 TYM5 112.5 calls, 50 last ref 110-30.5 to -31
- 1,000 TYK5 112.5/113.5/114.5/116.5 broken call condors ref 110-27
- 1,300 FVM5 107/107.5 put spds, 13 ref 108-08
- 2,500 TYK5 112/113 call spds ref 110-26