BELGIUM T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
May-02 12:45
Belgium has announced it will be looking to sell a combined E2.4-2.8bln of the following at its auct...
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US DATA: ADP Beats In Solid Report, Usual NFP Correlation Caveats Aside
Apr-02 12:44
- ADP employment growth was stronger than expected in March at 155k (cons 120k) after a marginally upward revised 84k (initial 77k) in February.
- It leaves an average monthly 142k increase in Q1 and with the latest increase above the average 144k in 2024, offering a reasonably solid report along with other hard data vs weaker soft data.
- Correlation with private payrolls growth remains a concern. In latest vintages for both releases, ADP undershot by -56k in Feb, overshot by 105k in Jan and undershot by -111k in Dec. That said, the private payrolls series has admittedly been the more volatile series in recent months.
- Bloomberg consensus for private payrolls currently stands at 135k.
- With that standard caveat aside, there was an impressive bounce in seasonally adjusted hiring from smallest firms, with those with 1-19 employees adding 42k jobs after a rare 4k decline in Feb (revised from the -17k initially, a first monthly decline since Dec 2023).
- There’s no clear trend by firm size when comparing the Q1 average job growth to that of 2024. The smallest (1-19) and largest (500+) employees have both seen a moderation in hiring (average 22k vs 39k and 54k vs 67k respectively) but all other sized firms have seen an acceleration in hiring.
- On the pay front, median annual pay eased to a new recent low for job changers at 6.5% Y/Y (from 6.8% in Feb and through September’s 6.6% for the lowest since early 2021.
- Job stayers meanwhile eased a tenth to a joint recent low of 4.6% Y/Y (otherwise lowest since mid-2021) with the combination seeing a joint low for the pay premium at 1.9pps.
EGB OPTIONS: Bobl Call Spread seller
Apr-02 12:37
OEK5 118.00/118.50cs sold at 22.5 in 10k.
CROSS ASSET: Some downside traction in Equities
Apr-02 12:33
- Some pick up to the sell side in Equities, Tnotes looks to test the 4.1040% level in Yield equates to ~112.03, this was the March and the 2025 low in Yield.
- The USDJPY will look for a break through the 149.00, if upside traction continues in Treasuries.
- Resistance in Bund is unchanged at 129.63, this equates to 2.65%.
- US Emini is eyeing a break through 5600.00, Yesterday's low.
