OIL: Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Slightly Lower

• MNI reports on fiscal policy comments from the European Commission's draft Autumn Semester Package, for release Tuesday -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey offered a puzzling look at manufacturing activity in November, with the headline general business activity index slipping to its lowest since June despite various metrics improving strongly. Reinforcing the disconnect between a softer headline and broader improvements, the other three regional Fed manufacturing surveys released to date all firmed on the month. 

• The Dallas Fed manufacturing headline index for general business activity fell further to -10.4 in November (cons -2.0) after -5.0 in October for its lowest since June.
• Conversely, the “production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose 15 points to 20.5, indicating a notable pickup in output growth”.
• In addition, new orders improved from -1.7 to 4.8 for its highest since August and before that January, the “capacity utilization index jumped 21 points to 19.4, and the shipments index increased nine points to 15.1.”
• “Expectations for manufacturing activity six months from now remained positive. The future production index increased notably, to 33.7 from 21.0, while the future general business activity index edged up to 11. Most other indexes of future manufacturing activity also moved further into positive territory, indicating increased activity six months ahead.”
• We’ll revert after tomorrow’s Richmond Fed release but for now, three of the four main regional Fed manufacturing surveys improved in November, with Empire from 10.7 to 18.7 (highest since Nov 2024), Philly from -12.8 to -1.7 after some volatile swings and Kansas City from 6 to 8 (highest since Jul 2022). 

Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News reports on X that he has received 'countless' messages from Republican House Representatives this morning agreeing with the sentiment of a report the outlet ran this morning questioning the wisdom of staying in Congress in light of an extended period of legislative gridlock in the lower chamber and Marjorie Taylor-Greene's decision to retire from the House in January. 

• Sherman writes, "since this ran this morning -- 4 hours ago? -- ive gotten countless text messages from House Republicans agreeing with this sentiment. and saying why the hell should we stay in congress if all we're going to do is vote on censures and be a potted plant."
• Sherman wrote earlier, "The crux of MTG’s message is that Trump and House Republicans are abandoning all of the president’s priorities, falling into complacency and are on the brink of squandering their razor-thin majority... A few other GOP members messaged us over the weekend saying that they, too, are considering retiring in the middle of the term."
• The reporting chimes with a bullet we posted earlier looking at the mathematics of the House majority. If another two Republican House reps follow MTG to the exit, House Speaker Mike Johnson is likely to lose control of the gavel. Such an outcome would hand oversight powers to Democrats, opening up the possibility of Congressional investigations and likely impeachment of members of the Trump administration. See: US: Marjorie Taylor-Greene's Exit Raises Risk Of GOP Losing House Majority