OIL: Oil Summary At European Close: Crude Slightly Higher
Oct-08 15:09
Crude is extending the gains seen so far this week after the smaller than expected OPEC output rise for November and despite a larger than expected US crude stock build today.
- Brent DEC 25 up 1.3% at 66.32$/bbl
- WTI NOV 25 up 1.5% at 62.66$/bbl
- A soft outlook was reflected in the EIA’s October report as it is forecasting global oil inventories to build through next year pushing Brent down to $52/bbl from $62/bbl in Q4 2025. Global output rises across its forecast horizon driven by non-OPEC. It doesn’t believe OPEC will be able to achieve its higher production targets.
- US crude inventories for the week to Oct. 3 built by more than expected with a rise in imports and production offsetting an unexpected rise in refinery runs.
- The EIA has raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2025 by 0.2mb/d to 104.0mb/d while demand for 2026 is stable at 105.1mb/d.
- API data yesterday showed a US crude stock build of 2.8mbbl and with a 1.2mbbl draw at Cushing. Gasoline stocks drew 1.2mbbl and distillates fell 1.8mbbl.
- Goldman Sachs forecast an average surplus of 2mb/d in Q4 and 2026 leading to rising stockpiles, weaker time spreads and lower prices, according to Bloomberg.
- Indian refiners are expected to boost oil imports from Russia in the coming months, as Urals discounts widen amid ample supplies, Bloomberg reports.
- Russia’s four-week average seaborne crude shipments in the week to Oct. 5 held just below the highest since May 2024 at 3.57mb/d, according to Bloomberg.
- Iran’s oil keeps moving through a tighter, more efficient shadow fleet despite the UN’s snapback sanctions on Iran officially returning on September 27, Vortexa said.
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US STOCKS: Early Equities Roundup: Reversing Fri's Sales, Nasdaq Marks New High
Sep-08 15:06
- Stocks are gaining early Monday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq outperforming as it climbed to a new record high in the first half. Still well off Friday's high print of 45770.20, the DJIA trades up up 81.16 points (0.18%) at 45483.85, S&P E-Minis up 24 points (0.37%) at 6513.25, Nasdaq up 166.6 points (0.8%) at 21864.93 vs. 21885.62 high.
- Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sector shares led gainers in the first half, semiconductor shares rebounding from better selling last week: Broadcom +4.58%, Oracle +2.84%, Synopsys +2.70%, Palantir Technologies +2.61% and NVIDIA +1.98%.
- Consumer Discretionary sector was buoyed by: Booking Holdings +2.23%, Wynn Resorts +2.18%, Amazon.com +1.99% and DoorDash +1.75%.
- On the flipside, Real Estate and Health Care sector shares led decliners in the first half. Investment trust shares weighed on the Real Estate sector with SBA Communications -4.44%, Crown Castle -4.19%, American Tower -4.08% and Weyerhaeuser-2.45%.
- Meanwhile, pharmaceutical shares weighed on the Health Care sector: Moderna -3.94%, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals -3.23%, Dexcom -2.76% and CVS Health -2.32%.
EUROPEAN FISCAL: Germany: "Autumn of Reforms" Scheduled To Start
Sep-08 15:02
The policy process for fiscal measures and structural reforms in Germany appears to be starting to take shape according to reports filtering through over the weekend. This comes amid the government's "autumn of reforms" being set to start this week, and means a) income tax changes, b) social security net cuts and c) pension system reform are all being discussed if not in the pipeline. The backdrop remains weak growth, a E30bln+ gap in the 2027 budget as well as right-wing AfD polling close to the largest party nationally. Meaningful progress on the widely heralded "bureaucracy reforms" remains to be observed, and the coalition takes split views on how to proceed.
Details below:
- On pensions, ideas being floated include the abandonment of retirement with 63 years (which is in place for some age groups) but other representatives proposed raising the retirement age to 70 years more altogether.
- On income taxes, finance minister Klingbeil as well as a single CDU budget policy spokesman have both previously floated increases for high earners but this was met with wide criticism by other CDU representatives, referring to the coalition agreement, which makes no mention of this.
- A commission for deeper welfare state reform ("modernization" and "bureaucracy reduction") is set in place and targets publishing proposals by the end of year. Chancellor Merz plans E5bln of savings in unemployment benefits (around 10% of respective expenditure) through such a system reform. Labour minister Bas (SPD) has strongly argued against the proclaimed magnitude of savings but terms between her and Merz eased afterwards again.
OPTIONS: Expiries for Sep09 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Sep-08 14:58
- EUR/USD: $1.1530-50(E1.2bln), $1.1600(E519mln), $1.1650-70(E1.0bln), $1.1685-05(E2.3bln), $1.1750(E835mln), $1.1790-00(E1.2bln), $1.1885-90(E994mln)
- USD/JPY: Y145.85-00($1.4bln), Y150.00($1.1bln)
- GBP/USD: $1.3595-20(Gbp1.0bln)
