COMMODITIES: Oil Slips Whilst Gold Rises

Jul-31 22:36

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* Oil slipped overnight in what has been an otherwise positive week as profit taking into month en...

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US: Trump Posts Israel Has Agreed To Finalize Conditions For Ceasefire In Gaza

Jul-01 22:34

US President Trump has posted on Truth Social, stating his representatives held meetings with Israel officials today on Gaza. Trump states conditions are in place for a 60 day ceasefire, but that it up to Hamas to accept the deal, see the full post below. 

  • Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump "My Representatives had a long and productive meeting with the Israelis today on Gaza. Israel has agreed to the necessary conditions to finalize the 60 Day CEASEFIRE, during which time we will work with all parties to end the War. The Qataris and Egyptians, who have worked very hard to help bring Peace, will deliver this final proposal. I hope, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this Deal, because it will not get better — IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE. Thank you for your attention to this matter!" 

NZD: NZD/USD - Consolidates Around 0.6100, Eye's NFP On Thursday

Jul-01 22:31

The NZD/USD had a range overnight of 0.6081 - 0.6120, Asia is trading around 0.6100. The pair is breaking through its recent highs and attempting to build momentum for a potential look back towards the 0.6400/0.6500 area. The relentless pressure on the USD is providing a tailwind and dips towards 0.6000 should continue to see demand. The market will be eyeing NFP on Thursday so there is a good chance we will consolidate until we see if that gives the USD a further nudge lower. 

  • Whole Milk Prices Nearly 12% Off May Highs : Overnight the whole milk price auction saw a sharp fall. We fell to $3859 from $4084 prior, which was a 5.1% drop between the two auctions. The whole milk price is off close to 12% from its highs at the start of May.
  • A huge bounce from sub 0.5900 and the NZD has now established a foothold above 0.6000, with the USD breaking lower the NZD/USD looks to be building for a potential break higher of its own.  A clear break of 0.6100 could provide the momentum to begin a larger move higher, initially targeting the 0.6400/0.6500 area.
  • CFTC Data shows Asset Managers have cut their shorts and are now beginning to build a long in NZD +12195, the Leveraged community maintained their short that had just been added to -11981.
  • Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.5800(649m). Upcoming Close Strikes : none.
  • Data/Event : Cotality Home Value

Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

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Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

AUD: AUD/USD - Consolidates Towards 0.6600

Jul-01 22:16

The AUD/USD had a range overnight of 0.6562 - 0.6590, Asia is trading around 0.6580. The AUD/USD had a quiet session as it consolidated its recent gains at the highs for the year. The market will be watching for signs of this move building momentum for a more significant move higher, could the catalyst be NFP on Thursday ?

  • (Bloomberg) - "Trade latest: Trump said a trade deal with Japan is unlikely and expects it to pay a tariff rate of “whatever the number is that we determine.” He was more optimistic about an India pact, while adding that he’s standing firm on his July 9 deadline."
  • “Australia May retail sales and building approvals are likely to have risen over the previous month, according to Bloomberg surveys.”(BBG)
  • The AUD/USD is breaking through the top of its recent range as the pressure on the USD increases. First support is seen back towards 0.6500.
  • The AUD needs a sustained break above 0.6550/0.6600 to potentially start building momentum for an extended move higher, a close back above 0.6600 and the focus would turn back to 0.6900/0.7000.
  • Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6550(AUD654m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6600(AUD2.55bm July4).
  • CFTC Data shows Asset managers increasing their shorts -36967, the Leveraged community has also added to their shorts -22963.
  • Data/Event: Building Approvals, Retail Sales

Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

image

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

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