COMMODITIES: Oil Slides Further on Supply Concerns as Gold Follows

• RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
• RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6 
• RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
• PRICE: 138.80 @ 15:17 GMT Aug 5
• SUP 1: 137.32 - Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg   
• SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg

JGBs rallied sharply alongside global bond markets Friday, piercing mid-week resistance in the process. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal. A return lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. 

• RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
• RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6 
• RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
• PRICE: 138.80 @ 15:17 GMT Aug 5
• SUP 1: 137.32 - Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg   
• SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg

JGBs rallied sharply alongside global bond markets Friday, piercing mid-week resistance in the process. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal. A return lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. 

Oil prices fell again on Tuesday and are now down over 5% in August. The market believes there will be a deal between Russia and the US over Ukraine and if not, US tariffs won’t be able to stop the shipment of Russian crude any way. There is talk of a ceasefire in the air but Russia is considering its choices. The market is widely expected to face excess supply as OPEC raises output and a major US shale operator is cutting investment.

• WTI fell 1.7% to $65.17/bbl after reaching a low of $65.03. The benchmark is now down 5.9% this month. It is currently around $65.21, below the 50-day EMA at $65.48. The bear trigger is at $62.84.
• Brent is 1.4% lower at $66.54/bbl after falling to $66.41 and is now down 5.1% in August. It continued to trade below the 50-day EMA at $68.05 opening $65.06, 30 June low.
• US President Trump reiterated that if there isn’t a truce in Ukraine by August 8 the US will increase restrictions on Russia, including sanctioning its shadow fleet, and add tariffs on those who purchase its oil. He has been targeting India but PM Modi is not bowing to the pressure. China has also now been mentioned.
• In July, Trump said that tariffs of around 100% could be imposed but on Tuesday he said he wouldn’t name a figure. He also noted that US special envoy Witkoff was in Russia on Wednesday and is waiting to see what comes out of his meetings.
• Bloomberg reported that US oil inventories fell a more-than-expected 4.2mn last week, according to people familiar with the API data. Gasoline stocks fell 900k while distillate rose 1.6mn. The official EIA data is out later today.