OIL: Oil Remains Flat Ahead of OPEC+ Meet
Nov-28 19:03
Crude is steady overall, holding within range ahead of an OPEC+ meeting this weekend with focus still on Ukraine peace plan discussions – though further signs of a gap between a deal have emerged.
- Brent JAN 26 down 0.06% at 63.29$/bbl
- WTI JAN 26 down 0.05% at 59.03$/bbl
- OPEC+ meets on November 30, but no change in policy is expected after the group decided at the last meeting to leave production quotas unchanged in Q1 given seasonally soft demand. The group is likely to focus talks on the topic of members’ maximum production capacity, Reuters sources said.
- Saudi Aramco may reduce the OSP of Arab Light crude by $0.30/bbl for sales to Asia in January, according to a Bloomberg survey.
- Two Russian dark fleet vessels are reported to have been struck by mines in the Black Sea on Friday.
- The US Special Envoy Witkoff leads a delegation to Moscow next week with President Putin suggesting that the US peace plan could be a basis for a deal, but proposal still requires some amendments.
- The United States is poised to recognise Russia’s control over Crimea and other occupied Ukrainian territories to secure a deal to end the war, the Telegraph reports.
- Russia’s seaborne oil buyers imported 23% less crude w/w in the seven days to Nov. 25 as US sanctions took effect, with key buyers like India and Turkey curtailing supplies, Platts reports.
- India says it expects a US trade deal before the end of the year now that most issues have been resolved, its trade secretary said Friday according to Reuters.
- Disruption from sanctions on China’s Rizhao Shihua Terminal has cascaded well beyond Shandong, Vortexa said. Sanctioned crude is likely to keep accumulating on water as imports lag Iran’s export pace despite new import quotas.
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FED: Fed Watching Corporate Layoff Announcements Very Carefully
Oct-29 19:02
- Powell says they're watching corporate layoff announcements "very carefully", as "it could absolutely have implications for job creation. We don't really see it in the in the initial claims data yet."
FED: Powell Questioned on Available Data amid Government Shutdown
Oct-29 19:00
- Asked "Do you worry at some point you're going to have to start making policy by anecdote?", Powell says "We're going to collect every scrap of data we can find, evaluate it, and think carefully about it...If you ask me, could it affect the the the December meeting? I'm not saying it's going to, but yeah, you could imagine that. You know... if you're driving in the fog, you slow down. I don't know how that's going to play into things. The data may come back, but there's a possibility that it would make sense to be more cautious about moving. I'm not, you know, I'm not committing to that. I'm just saying it's sort of a possibility that you would say, we really can't see, so let's slow down."
- Powell namechecks a few private-sector providers of inflation data: "Pricestats, Adobe, and others, for wage inflation", "ADP data on spending"... as well as the Beige Book.
EURGBP TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend
Oct-29 19:00
- RES 4: 0.8865 1.764 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing
- RES 3: 0.8848 1.618 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing
- RES 2: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
- RES 1: 0.8818 High Oct 29
- PRICE: 0.8806 @ 16:08 GMT Oct 29
- SUP 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25
- SUP 2: 0.8710 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8688 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support
A bull trend in EURGBP remains intact. Tuesday’s strong gains resulted in a clear break of resistance 0.8769, the Jul 28 high and a bull trigger. This, together with today’s extension, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The 0.8800 handle has been cleared, sights are on 0.8835, the May 3 2023 high. Initial support lies at 0.8751, the Sep 25 high.
