OIL: Oil Products Summary at US Close: Diesel Cracks Fall
Oil Products Summary at US Close: Diesel Cracks Fall
Diesel cracks have fallen as the market focuses on Russia-Ukraine peace talks and assesses the impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.
- US ULSD crack down 1.3$/bbl at 35.01$/bbl
- US gasoline crack down 0.1$/bbl at 16.15$/bbl
- US 321 crack down 0.5$/bbl at 22.45$/bbl
- EU Gasoil-Brent down 0.9$/bbl at 22.83$/bbl
- EU Gasoline-Brent down 0.5$/bbl at 12.35$/bbl
- Ukrainian drones damaged a primary CDU and a loading rack at Russia’s fourth-largest oil refinery, Slavneft-YANOS in the city of Yaroslavl, Reuters reports citing industry sources, adding that the refinery suspended output.
- Russia’s seaborne oil product exports in November were down by 0.8% m/m at 7.494m tons as the impact of drone attacks was offset by completion of refinery maintenance, Reuters reports.
- South Korea’s 800kb/d Yeosu refinery experience minor disruption at the RFCC but operations are to resume shortly, Bloomberg sources said.
- Jan/Feb Sing92 gasoline spreads have strengthened from $0.7/bbl to $1.15/bbl so far this month, while the crack has gained ~$1/bbl, according to Sparta Commodities.
- Crude arrivals into the Dangote refinery averaged around 380k b/d between Sep. and Nov., about 30% lower than volumes purchased during the July-Aug. peak, according to The Punch citing Kpler data.
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USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 156.75 High Jan 23
- RES 3: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 2: 155.53 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
- RES 1: 155.04 High Nov 12
- PRICE: 154.53 @ 17:17 GMT Nov 12
- SUP 1: 152.84 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 151.54 Low Oct 29
- SUP 3: 151.03 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 150.47 Low Oct 21
The trend structure in USDJPY remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Today’s climb has delivered a print above 154.48, the Nov 4 high and bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 155.53, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 152.84, the 20-day EMA.
US: Shutdown Deal More Beneficial To Republicans - YouGov
A new survey from YouGov has found that, “Roughly equal shares of Americans say that Democrats in Congress should have and should not have held out for changes to health care funding — such as extending subsidies for Affordable Care Act (ACA) coverage — before agreeing to end the government shutdown (41% vs. 39%)” The survey notes, “Three weeks earlier, more Americans said Democrats should than should not hold out for health care funding (45% vs. 32%)”
- Another YouGov poll conducted Monday — after the Senate reached the agreement to fund the government and end the shutdown but before the measure passed — found that “Republicans approve of the shutdown deal by 56% to 11%. Nearly half (47%) of Democrats disapprove and 31% approve.”
- YouGov notes, “The poll that ran after the post-shutdown deal also found that Republicans in Congress are seen as benefitting more from the deal than Democrats are (38% say Republicans benefit more and 9% say Democrats do); 20% believe Republicans and Democrats benefit equally from it."
Figure 1: “Do you approve or disapprove of the deal reached by Congress to fund the government and end the shutdown? (%)”
Source: YouGov
CANADA DATA: Building Permits Pick Up, But Still Negative For The Quarter
Building permits rose more quickly than anticipated in September at 4.5% M/M SA (0.9% expected), but this was largely offset by a downward revision to prior (-4.0%, vs -1.2%) in this volatile series.
- Residential permitting rose 4.8% to a 5-month high level, with non-residential up 4.0% rising for the first time in 5 months.
- However note these figures are in value and not volume terms, making the 11.2% Y/Y overall drop particularly poor. The real rise in September was 4.2% M/M. But for Q3 as a whole, the value of housing permits in constant terms fell to the lowest in series history back to 2018.
- For the 3rd quarter, permits fell 5.4% in nominal terms for a 2nd consecutive quarterly decline, with Ontario non-residential permitting driving the Q3 decrease (after jumping in Q2).
- Overall despite the September pickup, the softness in broader permits bodes for some softer readings ahead in housing starts and overall construction.
- The BOC's latest Monetary Policy Report notes "Residential investment is anticipated to grow modestly over the projection horizon. Housing starts are anticipated to remain elevated and grow modestly" though for business capex "Tariffs and trade policy uncertainty are expected to remain a significant headwind to investment into 2026."
