OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products Summary at European Close: Diesel Crack Falls Back
Diesel cracks have relinquished earlier gains to be trading lower, with pressure from a spike in underlying crude. Diesel had recouped some of the losses from last week ahead of the US industry-based inventory data from the API and EIA.
- US gasoline crack up 0.3$/bbl at 13.79$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.2$/bbl at 23.19$/bbl
- BP’s 400kb/d Rotterdam oil refinery is halting two of its production units after smoke from an electricity substation, according to Bloomberg citing a local alert.
- Africa is about to become a hot spot for oil refining, with capacity expansion on the continent set to comprise 25% of the global total by 2030, according to BNEF.
- Private Chinese refiner Hengli Petrochemical has purchased Middle East crude after receiving an additional crude import quota of 2m tons that can be used in 2024 and 2025, according to Reuters sources.
- India’s diesel demand growth is expected to continue to slow in 2025 with focus on battery and gas-powered vehicles, according to HSBC cited by Bloomberg.
- The aviation industry isn’t moving fast enough to reach its SAF targets, according to IATA’s head Willie Walsh.
- Air passenger numbers are forecast to hit 5.2 billion in 2025, the first year where air travellers exceeded 5 billion, IATA said. This would be a 6.7% rise on the year.
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Historical bullets
JGB TECHS: (Z4) Bounce Reverses
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- PRICE: 143.70 @ 16:14 GMT Nov 08
- SUP 1: 143.39 - Low Nov 07
- SUP 2: 142.23 - Low Jul 02
- SUP 3: 140.21 - 1.236 proj of Mar 22 - Nov 1 ‘23 - Jan 15 price swing
Prices fell further Thursday, extending the recent pullback. The return lower at the start of this week has culminated in a break of 143.57, marking both the Jul 17 high on the continuation contract as well as the Oct 22 low. For now, the 50-dma tops out at 144.32, and marks first resistance. A continuation higher would open 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont) and a bull trigger.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Late 2Y/10Y Ultra-Bond Flattener
- Flattener crossed late Friday at 1645:30ET, DV01 $322,000
- -8,900 TUZ4 102-23.88, sell through 102-24.38 post time bid vs.
- +3,700 UXYZ4 113-16, post time offer
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.4179 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 1: 1.3959 High Nov 1 / 6
- PRICE: 1.3910 @ 16:29 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: 1.3836/22 20-day EMA and a key S/T support / Low Nov 6
- SUP 2: 1.3744 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3611 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
USDCAD reversed course Wednesday and recovered from Tuesday's low. The trend outlook is unchanged, it remains bullish. Attention is the key resistance at 1.3946, the Aug 5 high. This hurdle has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen the uptrend and open 1.3977, the Oct 13 high and a key medium-term resistance point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3836, the 20-day EMA.
