OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products Summary At European Close: Cracks Fall

May-02 15:13

US cracks are generally lower today as trade uncertainty underpins demand concerns. 

  • US ULSD crack down 0.2$/bbl at 25.21$/bbl
  • US gasoline crack down 0.7$/bbl at 26.36$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down 0.2$/bbl at 25.21$/bbl
  • Global gasoline demand indicators suggest continued weakness as the summer driving season approaches, Vortexa said.
  • Kuwait National Petroleum extinguished a fire on Thursday at its Mina Abdullah Refinery’s atmospheric distillation residue desulfurization unit no. 112, according to a company statement cited by Bloomberg.
  • An earlier issue at Norway’s Mongstad refinery has been resolved, after non-operational were evacuated earlier, Equinor says.
  • Plans to restart a section of Nigeria’s 125k b/d Warri refinery are at risk due to an indefinite strike planned by plant support staff from May 5, Argus said.
  • India’s diesel and gasoline sales increased in April from the previous month, data from state-run Indian Oil and Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum showed cited by Bloomberg.
  • Utilisation rates at PDH plants in China could fall to 59% from just under 70% if tariffs on LPG between the US and China are prolonged, Bloomberg reports citing ICIS analysis.
  • Singapore total oil product stockpiles fell by 1.23m bbls to 39.1m bbls in the week to April 30, the lowest in around 2 months, according to Enterprise Singapore data cited by Bloomberg.
  • The Bilbao oil refinery will restart an FCC on May 2 once it has stabilized following the power outage, according to operator Petronor.
  • Asia’s spot differential for HSFO fell to discounts May 2, despite recent strength in refining cracks, Reuters said.
  • Pemex’s seven refineries in Mexico processed the most crude in a year as the Dos Bocas refinery ran at the highest rate since its inauguration almost three-years ago.

Historical bullets

US: Senator McConnell To Vote Yes On Democratic Tariff Resolution - NBC

Apr-02 15:01

Senator Tim Kaine (D-VT) said that former Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) indicated that he will vote yes on a Democratic resolution that would "undo" President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada by challenging the national security justification for their imposition, according to NBC News' Frank Thorpe on X. The resolution is seen as a message exercise as House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) would kill the bill in the House, should it pass the Senate. 

  • For the resolution to pass, Democrats will need at least four Republican votes. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) and moderate Senators Susan Collins (R-ME) and Thom Tillis (R-NC) have indicated they will vote yes.
  • The vote, which will come later today after being punted from yesterday's schedule by Senator Corey Booker's (D-NJ) marathon speech, will put Republicans representing farm and manufacturing states in a challenging position, with polling suggesting that voters are sceptical of Trump's tariffs.
  • Republican Senators may feel slightly more emboldened to oppose Trump's agenda after elections in Florida and Wisconsin yesterday provided warning signs that Independents and moderate Republicans are unconvinced by the early period of Trump's administration and the influence of advisor Elon Musk.
  • Recognising that a significant Senate Republican rebellion could undermine his 'Liberation Day' announcement, Trump has issued two lengthy statements on Truth Social directly calling on Republicans to oppose the resolution. 

TARIFFS: Deutsche Bank Expect Any Relief Rally Will be Short-Lived for Equities

Apr-02 14:59
  • On today's market outcomes from the tariffs announcement, Deutsche Bank write that it is hard to see an outcome where we see material and sustained upside for equities.
  • They write that even if tariffs are perceived to be on the lenient side, there remains a high degree of uncertainty over how various counties will respond and whether Trump will be more aggressive over time.
  • Deutsche Bank see the broader USD reaction as likely to be led by equities and therefore see greater downside risks for the USD, led by the JPY and gold.

SWAPS: Long End ASWs Weaker Alongside Outright Bunds

Apr-02 14:54

Long end ASWs a little weaker on the day alongside the sell off in outright bonds detailed recently.

  • Bund & Buxl ASWs have failed to push meaningfully above levels that prevailed ahead of the “whatever it takes” German fiscal moment, while Bund yields haven’t broken below the lows witnessed since the German fiscal loosening was table, pointing to new ranges being established as Germany moves to a new fiscal framework.