OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products Summary At European Close: Cracks Fall

Feb-26 19:27

Diesel cracks are lower today with a drop in demand and inventory build adding to concern for future demand. Gasoline cracks are also softer following a small US stock build.

  • US gasoline crack down 0.5$/bbl at 23.43$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down 1.4$/bbl at 27.52$/bbl
  • Gasoline stocks edged up by 0.37mbbl with an increase in imports set against higher weekly implied demand. The four-week average implied gasoline demand edged higher to follow the seasonal trend and remain just below the previous five year average.
  • Gasoline cracks and spreads are searching for support as the physical market softens, according to Sparta Commodities. 
  • Distillates stocks unexpectedly rose by 3.9mbbl with an increase in production, imports and a drop in weekly implied demand. The four week average implied demand pulled back from the high levels seen through early Feb due to the cold weather.
  • Saudi Arabia's 2024 gasoline exports reached an over six-year high of 280,500 b/d amid refinery upgrades and domestic demand remaining below pre-Covid levels, Argus said.
  • In January, Pemex’s seven refineries operated at less than half installed capacity for a fifth month at 887kb/d, or 45.1% of capacity, as Dos Bocas processed no crude, according to company data cited by Bloomberg.
  • Rosneft’s Tuapse refinery temporarily halted crude intake on Wednesday, Bloomberg reports citing source.
  • New refining start ups are adding little product supply amid a mix of maintenance, outages and start-up delays, Vortexa said at its IE week conference.
  • Jet is the product with the highest chance for prices and cracks to strengthen in 2025, with the strength coming from the supply side, Vortexa said.

Historical bullets

FED: Jan 2025 FOMC Analyst Views: QT Seen Ending Mid-Year (2/2)

Jan-27 19:21

All analysts expect the FOMC to hold rates steady at the January meeting.

  • Statement: Changes are seen being limited largely to the first paragraph describing current economic conditions. Most focus is on the labor market language, which – for those analysts who expect statement tweaks – could shift slightly to reflect some stabilization in conditions in recent months, vs previous easing.
  • Forward guidance is expected to be unchanged.
  • QT: The Fed is seen ending quantitative tightening (more specifically, for Treasuries, with MBS continuing to run off), at some point between March and September 2025 – consensus is for a mid-year (ie June) end.

FED: Jan 2024 FOMC Analyst Views: Wide Range Of Cutting Calls (1/2)

Jan-27 19:19

Analysts enter the first FOMC meeting of 2025 expecting anywhere from zero rate cuts to 125bp worth of reductions by year-end, with March the first plausibly “live” meeting.

  • The central expectation is for 50bp of reductions in 2025, with analysts either looking for front-loaded (March, June) or back-loaded (September, December) reductions.
  • Some see more easing in 2026 than in 2025 (Barclays, Deutsche Nomura).
  • None expect the FOMC to hike.
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FED: MNI Fed Preview - Jan 2025: Analyst Outlook

Jan-27 18:58

Note to readers: This update of our Jan 24 preview includes analyst expectations for the January FOMC meeting and beyond (Starting Page 20)

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:

FedPrevJan2025 - With Analysts.pdf