OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products Markets Steady
Nov-28 19:06
Cracks are relatively steady overall as the market weighs Ukraine peace hopes and sanctions impacts on Lukoil/Rosneft – though progress towards a peace deal appears to remain distant.
- Gasoil DEC 25 up 0.1% at 679$/mt
- WTI-Brent unchanged at -4.31$/bbl
- US gasoline crack down 0.9$/bbl at 18.1$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.4$/bbl at 38.4$/bbl
- The Middle Eastern refining sector is in a uniquely advantageous yet complex position following the US and UK sanctions on Russian entities, Rystad Energy said.
- Global air passenger demand growth rose 6.6% y/y in October, according to the IATA.
- Ukraine struck the Saratov oil refinery on the night of Nov. 28, according to Ukraine’s General Staff in a social media post.
- “A series of explosions was recorded, followed by a fire in the target area,” the post said. The results of the strike are being clarified.
- Insights Global data on Thursday showed European ARA Gasoil stocks fell last week to their lowest since late-July. Gasoline stocks rose but remain below the five-year seasonal average.
- Independent refiners in China have received their first batch of crude oil import quotas for 2026 that can be used for cargoes arriving by the end of the year, Reuters said. Nearly 8m tons was issued to 21 refiners so far, up from 6.04m tons issued in Nov 2024.
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FED: Powell Questioned Again on Dec Meeting Decision
Oct-29 19:05
- Powell asked again about the December meeting decision - he says that the perspective of some FOMC participants is that "we've now moved 150 basis points and that we're down into the range, between three and four, where most estimates of many estimates of the neutral rate live. But I think there are people on the committee who have higher estimates of the neutral rate, and that's, you know, you can argue these positions... I think for for some part of the committee, it's time to maybe take a step back and and see whether there really are downside risks to the labor market, or see whether, in fact, the stronger growth that we're seeing is, is real. Ordinarily, the labor market is a better indicator of the momentum of the economy than the spending data. In this case that gives a more downbeat read. So people just have, you know, we've cut 50 more basis points in the last two meetings. And there's a sense from some, let's pause here, kind of thing, and a sense from others wanting to go ahead. But that's why I say differing views, strongly different views."
FED: Fed Watching Corporate Layoff Announcements Very Carefully
Oct-29 19:02
- Powell says they're watching corporate layoff announcements "very carefully", as "it could absolutely have implications for job creation. We don't really see it in the in the initial claims data yet."
FED: Powell Questioned on Available Data amid Government Shutdown
Oct-29 19:00
- Asked "Do you worry at some point you're going to have to start making policy by anecdote?", Powell says "We're going to collect every scrap of data we can find, evaluate it, and think carefully about it...If you ask me, could it affect the the the December meeting? I'm not saying it's going to, but yeah, you could imagine that. You know... if you're driving in the fog, you slow down. I don't know how that's going to play into things. The data may come back, but there's a possibility that it would make sense to be more cautious about moving. I'm not, you know, I'm not committing to that. I'm just saying it's sort of a possibility that you would say, we really can't see, so let's slow down."
- Powell namechecks a few private-sector providers of inflation data: "Pricestats, Adobe, and others, for wage inflation", "ADP data on spending"... as well as the Beige Book.
