OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Gasoline Crack up on Week
Diesel and gasoline cracks have climbed into gains during US hours. Gasoline cracks are set for a 12% net gain on the week. However, diesel cracks remain weak, moving back to October levels amid ongoing soft US demand and building stocks.
- US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 12.98$/bbl
- US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 22.34$/bbl
- Money managers have cut their net-long gasoil positions by 8,731 to 14,508, according to weekly ICE data, cited by Bloomberg, a three-week low.
- USGC diesel shipments to the ARA region are set to rise, owing to improving export margins on the back of scarce supply in Europe and rising US refinery runs, traders told Reuters.
- Chinese refining margins have been heavily impacted in 2024 by weak demand and higher fixed costs according to OilChem.
- Refining capacity in China is expected to stabilise at around 950-960 million tonnes per year according to OilChem analysis.
- Nigeria’s Port Harcourt refinery recently started up a CDU which Kpler estimates is only running at 20kbd so far but its ramp up, along with Dangote, looks set to keep reshaping Atlantic gasoline flows.
- Asia’s SAF prices closed higher in November, with cooking oil-based SAF rising 10.9% on the month to $1,878.13/mt, Platts said.
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EURGBP TECHS: Reversal Lower Extends
- RES 4: 0.8523 High Aug 22
- RES 3: 0.8499 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 / Oct 18 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8400/0.8448 High Nov 5 / High Oct 31 and a reversal trigger
- PRICE: 0.8329 @ 15:43 GMT Nov 6
- SUP 1: 0.8295 20-day EMA / Low Oct 18 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
EURGBP traded lower Wednesday as the cross extends the pullback from last week’s high. The move down exposes key short-term support at 0.8295, the Oct 18 low, where a break would confirm a resumption of the current downtrend. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance and a reversal trigger is at 0.8448, the Oct 31 high.
FED: Instant Answer Questions for November FOMC Statement
The Instant Answers questions that we have selected for the November FOMC statement are as follows:
- Size of rate move
- Number of dissenters
- Does the statement change the language on employment conditions?
- Does the statement change the language on inflation progress?
- Does the statement change the language on the balance of risks?
- Does the FOMC announce an end to QT?
GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.3389 High Oct 1
- RES 3: 1.3274 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3175 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 1.3048 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.2877 @ 15:42 GMT Nov 6
- SUP 1: 1.2834 Low Nov 06
- SUP 2: 1.2799 Low Aug 15
- SUP 3: 1.2762 Low Aug 13
- SUP 4: 1.2665 Low Aug 8 and key support
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and today’s sharp sell-off reinforces current conditions and highlights the end of the recent corrective bounce. Sights are on key short-term support and the bear trigger at 1.2844, the Oct 31 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.2799, the Aug 15 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3048, today’s intraday high.
