OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Gasoline Crack Flat
Jun-09 18:10
Gasoline cracks have erased earlier gains to be flat on the day, while diesel cracks have gained ground, erasing earlier losses. Focus remains on fuel demand at the start of the summer driving season.
- US gasoline crack down 0$/bbl at 22.61$/bbl
- US ULSD crack up 0.2$/bbl at 24.94$/bbl
- US diesel cracks have recovered from a low of nearly $23/bbl on June 2 although remain well below highs of over $30/bbl in mid-May.
- US gasoline cracks are trading at the lowest since mid-April amid recent signs of weak demand.
- China’s gasoline market is likely to see relative supply-demand balance in June, while the market likely gains extra support from a demand recovery during the traditional peak season, OilChem said.
- CDU capacity utilisation rates at China’s state-owned refineries are expected to rise in the week to June 12 according to OilChem, with Behai Petrochem and Jinan Petrochem resuming from an outage.
- Funds raised ICE Gasoil net longs to the highest since late February driven by an increase in long only positions, according to the Commitments of Traders data released on Friday.
- Nymex diesel and gasoline positions both edged slightly lower on the week to both maintain a small net long position.
- European jet/kerosene demand appears to be supporting middle distillates going into the summer amid rapid jet fuel stock building in ARA, according to Vortexa.
- Global airline passenger capacity is set to rise by 1.25m seats in the seven days commencing from Jun. 09, OAG said.
- China’s air travel demand grew in April, compared to the same month in 2024, based on data from China’s Civil Aviation Administration.
- MNI Commodity Research: Political Drivers for Energy June 9-15: Download Full Report Here
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
MACRO OUTLOOK: US PPI/Retail Sales And Powell Follow On Thursday [2/2]
May-09 20:17
- Core PCE implications will then be watched closely in Thursday’s PPI report, and we expect with additional focus on portfolio management after last month’s huge upward revision to February.
- Retail sales, whilst only reported in nominal terms, will offer a keenly awaited look at consumer behavior.
- Real spending moderated to 1.8% annualized in Q1 after 4.0% in Q4 despite likely tariff front-running, with April a good test of how much discretionary spending was pulled forward.
- Finally, Powell provides “Opening Remarks” at the Second Thomas Laubach Research Conference, although he’s allotted twenty minutes so there is scope for more substantive remarks than you’d usually expect. His message at Wednesday’s FOMC press conference was one firmly of being in no hurry to cut rates amidst huge uncertainty. He also appeared to put more weight on hard data over soft indicators that appear more stagflationary in nature.
MACRO OUTLOOK: US CPI Offers Look At April Tariff Distortions on Tuesday [1/2]
May-09 20:15
- The week’s US data calendar is highlighted by CPI inflation on Tuesday although PPI inflation and retail sales reports on Thursday are in close second. All three releases are going to be important, offering further hard data for April in the first month under reciprocal tariffs. What’s more, PPI and retail sales are followed by Fed Chair Powell just ten minutes after their release (more on that below).
- Core CPI inflation is seen accelerating to 0.3% M/M in April, with six unrounded estimates we’ve seen to date averaging 0.27% M/M.
- A potential for a ‘low’ 0.3% aside, it’s still likely a swift acceleration from a particularly soft 0.06% M/M in March which was in large part down to surprisingly abrupt declines in lodging away from home (-3.5%) and airfare (-5.3%) prices.
- This lodging weakness carried over to core PCE inflation back in March, at just 0.03% M/M after a particularly strong 0.50% M/M in February in a large wedge with core CPI at 0.23% M/M.
- Markets currently price a next Fed cut with the September FOMC meeting.
USDCAD TECHS: Pressuring Resistance
May-09 20:00
- RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 1.4041 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3943 High May 9
- PRICE: 1.3930 @ 16:06 BST May 9
- SUP 1: 1.3751 Low May 6
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
USDCAD has recovered from its recent lows. Despite the recovery, the trend condition remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. A fresh cycle low on Tuesday reinforces the bearish theme. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is seen at 1.4041, the 50-day EMA.
