OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Diesel Cracks Fall

Sep-11 18:30

Diesel cracks are continuing to drift lower after stock builds in EIA data yesterday and a rise in ARA stocks today.

  • US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 20.72$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down 0.9$/bbl at 33.5$/bbl
  • European ARA Gasoil stocks rose for a sixth consecutive week, according to Insights Global data cited by Bloomberg.
  • Operations require flaring at Motiva’s 640,500 b/d Port Arthur, Texas refinery
  • The Petroineos Lavera refinery in southern France is halting some of its units for planned maintenance.
  • Strong gasoline margins are supported by supply-side outages and shutdowns and reflect sensitivity to prolonged supply outages even to an oversupplied market: Vortexa.
  • Pakistan’s largest refiner expects to boost fuel oil exports by 35%- 40% during the fiscal year ending June 2026: Reuters.
  • Russian product exports dropped to 1.96m b/d over Sep. 1-7, putting the month of September on track for its lowest average in about a year and down 10% from August.
  • China's independent refiners are facing a fresh risk to profits due to new rules to crack down on untaxed refined oil, according to Reuters.
  • China is stepping up an overhaul of its refining and petrochem sector after launching a nationwide survey of petrochemical facilities that have been operating for more than 20 years, OilChem said.
  • China’s gasoline consumption is seen at 427k mt/d in September, down 3.1% on August, and declining by 4.0% year-on-year.
  • China’s annual EV sales will exceed the total of all new passenger vehicles sold in the US: BNEF.
  • Singapore total oil inventories fell by 1.14kbbl to 50.498mbbl in the week to Sep. 10: Enterprise data.

Historical bullets

USDJPY TECHS: Shallow Bounce

Aug-12 18:30
  • RES 4: 152.31 High Feb 19 
  • RES 3: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg 
  • RES 2: 151.21 High Mar 28 
  • RES 1: 150.92 High Aug 1 
  • PRICE: 148.16 @ 16:01 BST Aug 12
  • SUP 1: 146.75 50-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 146.63 1.0% 10-dma envelope
  • SUP 3: 146.62 Low Aug 5
  • SUP 4: 145.86 Low Jul 24  

USDJPY consolidated for much of last week, holding the bulk of the NFP losses. Price has bounced, but recoveries are shallow at this stage. This has allowed a previously overbought condition to unwind, and keeps the downside argument in focus. Prices are trading either side of the 147.59 20-day EMA, and the inability to build a base here will be a concern. A clear break of this support zone would undermine the recent bull theme. A break of last week’s 150.92 high would resume the uptrend.     

US FISCAL YEAR-TO-DATE DEFICIT $1.629T, +7% VS FYTD 2024

Aug-12 18:00
  • US FISCAL YEAR-TO-DATE DEFICIT $1.629T, +7% VS FYTD 2024

MNI: US JUL TREASURY BUDGET -$291.1B

Aug-12 18:00
  • MNI: US JUL TREASURY BUDGET -$291.1B