OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Diesel Cracks Fall
Cracks are mostly steady today, although diesel cracks are losing ground as ULSD gains are outpaced by the rise in crude.
- US ULSD crack down 0.2$/bbl at 34.28$/bbl
- ULSD AUG 25 up 0.7% at 2.42$/gal
- US gasoline crack up 0.3$/bbl at 21.68$/bbl
- RBOB AUG 25 up 1.6% at 2.13$/gal
- US 321 crack up 0.1$/bbl at 25.88$/bbl
- Mexico’s Dos Bocas total processing has reached 230k b/d, Pemex said.
- Pemex imported 460k b/d of fuels in Q2, down 27% on the year.
- Pemex sees fuel imports falling ton 250k b/d by the year end, driven by the ramp up of the Dos Bocas refinery.
- Pemex’s Deer Park refinery in Texas saw CDU capacity utilisation rates at 86.7% in Q2.
- Orlen Unipetrol group’s Litvinov refinery has resumed standard operations, a spokesman told CTK on Monday. Force majeure on supplies remains in place, according to Bloomberg.
- A VLCC carrying diesel from the Middle East is headed to Europe amid tightness in the region, Bloomberg reports.
- ExxonMobil’s 564,440 b/d Baytown refinery reported emissions at the oil movement control center after a leak at tank 352 mixer according to a TCEQ filing.
- Phillips 66 expects to run its US refineries at a low to mid-90’s utilization range in Q3 according to Friday’s Q2 call.
- China’s refined oil production is expected to keep rising, with Yanshan Petrochem further boosting production, OilChem said.
- The Russian government has imposed a ban on gasoline exports for manufacturing companies until Aug. 31.
- Global airline passenger capacity is set to rise by 0.1m seats in the seven days commencing from Jul. 28, OAG said.
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US FISCAL: Available "Extraordinary" Measures To Ward Off X-Date Pick Up
Treasury reported Friday that as of Jun 25 it had $130B in remaining "extraordinary" measures (of a total $378B available) to ward off an "x-date" of running out of resources before defaulting. That's the highest in 2 weeks.
- Combined with $334B cash as of Jun 25 (after a bit of a buildup after the mid-June tax deadline), that's a total of roughly $465B in total resources available.
- We noted earlier this week that Treasury told Congress that it was required to extend its debt issuance suspension period from Jun 27 to Jul 24, in effect prolonging the use of extraordinary measures while we await a resolution to the debt limit impasse, probably through the fiscal legislation currently going through Congress.
- Realistically, fiscal dynamics so far this year point to potential for Treasury to get into September without running out of cash + extraordinary measures. That seems to be the broad market expectation.
US DATA: Cleveland, Dallas Fed PCE Medians Show Progress But Still Above-Target
The Cleveland and Dallas Fed's median PCE metrics showed a notable drop in May. All indices suggest PCE inflation running above 2%, and higher than the actual core and headline PCE measures, but pressures appear to have cooled from a pickup in the early months of the year.
- The Cleveland Fed's median PCE measure came in at 0.22% M/M, a 10-month low after April's 15-month high 0.31%. This left median PCE at 3.01% on a Y/Y basis, down from 3.06% prior for a the joint-lowest (with Feb) since September 2021.
- The Dallas Fed's annualized median rate fell to 2.01%, from 2.65% prior for a 10-month low. The 6-month annualized rate edged lower to 2.74% (2.76% prior), a 4-month low, with the Y/Y rate ticking down to 2.55% from 2.56%, echoing the Cleveland Fed for the lowest reading since September 2021.
USDCAD TECHS: Pivot Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 3: 1.4016 High May 12 and 13 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 1: 1.2710/3803 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: 1.3658 @ 16:23 BST Jun 27
- SUP 1: 1.3618 Low Jun 26
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
USDCAD has pulled back from its recent highs. The primary downtrend remains intact and short-term gains appear to have been corrective. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this price point would resume the downtrend. Any reversal higher would instead signal scope for a stronger retracement. Pivot resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3803.
