OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Diesel Cracks Fall
Apr-15 18:39
US diesel cracks are slightly lower on the day with the underlying product price softer. In contrast, gasoline cracks are firmer on the day.
- US gasoline crack up 0.3$/bbl at 23.7$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.3$/bbl at 25.94$/bbl
- EIA inventory change forecasts - Gasoline: -1.89m bbl (Bbg), -1.5m bbl (WSJ). Distillates: -1.64m bbl (Bbg), -0.8m bbl (WSJ). Ref runs: +0.38% (Bbg), +0.4% (WSJ).
- EIA annual energy outlook forecasts: Distillate fuel oil consumption is forecast to rise from 8.69 quadrillion BTUs in 2024 to 9.02 quadrillion this year, then fall to 8.96 quadrillion in 2026 and 8.85 quadrillion in 2027.
- Motor Gasoline consumption is forecast to fall from 16.51 quadrillion BTUs in 2024 to 16.48 quadrillion in 2025, then to 16.47 quadrillion in 2026 and 16.36 quadrillion in 2027.
- Jet Fuel consumption is forecast to rise from 3.52 quadrillion BTUs in 2024 to 3.57 quadrillion in 2025, 3.58 quadrillion in 2026 and 2.59 quadrillion in 2027.
- Russia’s crude-processing rates in early April rose 290k b/d above the March average, according to Bloomberg sources.
- Russia has ample motor fuel inventories to offset possible shortages during refinery maintenances, energy ministry officials said, cited by Reuters.
- Russia’s refined product exports fell further at the start of April, mainly amid smaller diesel flows after planned and unplanned maintenance hampered refinery run rates, Bloomberg said.
- Bunker fuel sales at the UAE’s Port of Fujairah, the world’s third-largest bunkering hub, rose 15% in March to 644.8 mcm, Platts said citing official data.
- Global airline passenger capacity is set to decline by 0.13m seats in the seven days commencing from Apr. 14, OAG said.
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FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
Mar-14 21:28
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Mar-14 21:25
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
Mar-14 21:17
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
