OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Diesel Crack Pauses Gains
Diesel cracks are easing back today after Middle East supply risks sparked a recent surge. Nevertheless, the crack is still set for gains of around 20% on the week.
- US gasoline crack up 1.1$/bbl at 22.8$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 1.4$/bbl at 32.14$/bbl
- US refinery processing capacity rose by 40k b/d in 2024 to 18.4m b/d, according to the EIA.
- Valero is restarting the sole fluid catalytic cracker at the 195kb/d Memphis refinery a day after a compressor tripped offline, according to a Bloomberg source.
- A tanker laden with 280k bbl of diesel travelling from the USGC to Panama U-turned in the Caribbean Sea, Bloomberg said.
- Israel faces major fuel supply challenges if it fails to quickly repair damage to its Haifa refinery, Platts reports.
- Israel’s 110k b/d Ashdod refinery has entered scheduled maintenance, but it is partial and the refinery is not completely offline, according to Nader Itayim at Argus Media.
- China’s fuel oil imports fell in May on the month to the lowest so far this year at 1.30million metric tons, or about 267,800 b/d, according to customs data cited by Reuters.
- Atlantic Basin gasoline/blending component seaborne loadings are growing amid shrinking destination outlets, according to Vortexa.
- Gasoline premiums in the Mideast Gulf have surged to a two-year high, reaching $5.75/bbl on June 19, driven by tightening supply, rising freight costs and growing concerns over potential supply disruption, Argus reports.
- Egypt is significantly increasing diesel imports to maintain power generation after Israel halted natural gas exports amid escalating conflict with Iran, Argus said.
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US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage rebounds to $162.082B this afternoon from $136.033B yesterday, total number of counterparties at 41. Usage had fallen to $54.772B last Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021. Conversely, usage had surged to the highest level since December 31, 2024 on Monday, March 31: $399.167B.
EURGBP TECHS: Briefly Pierces 50-day EMA
- RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.8541/8557 High May 2 / High Apr 28
- RES 1: 0.8456 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8441 @ 16:00 BST May 21
- SUP 1: 0.8394 Low May 16
- SUP 2: 0.8359 1.236 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8277 1.618 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
The cross rallied to show briefly above the 50-day EMA as the EUR rallied across the board into the Wednesday close. A clear break and close above would conclude the recent bearish phase and shift attention to 0.8541 resistance, the May 2 high. To the downside, the 0.8400 handle has been breached in recent weeks, an extension below which would open 0.8359, a Fibonacci projection.
BONDS: Europe Pi: OATs Flat, BTPs Long, Gilts Very Long (2/2)
- OAT: OAT remains in "flat" structural positioning, where it has been for all of May after a spell in short territory in March/April. The most recent week's trade was indicative of long setting.
- GILT: Gilt structural positioning remains "very long" into the roll, compared with "flat" where it spent most of the prior 7 months. The latest week saw some some shorts set.
- BTP: BTP remains in its typical "long" territory. Trade indicative of short covering was seen in the most recent week.
