OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Cracks Weaken

Jul-16 18:25

Distillate and gasoline cracks have bother flipped into losses following unexpected and large builds in both products.

  • US gasoline crack down 0.7$/bbl at 23.65$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down 0.2$/bbl at 34.08$/bbl
  • EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending Jul 11: Gasoline stocks +3,399 vs Exp -1,492, Implied mogas demand -670, Distillate stocks +4,173 vs Exp -1,181, Implied dist demand -245, Tot product stocks +13,205, Ref runs -157
  • Diesel refining margins remains surprisingly strong even as tensions in the Middle East have eased, though the tailwind for refiners may ebb in Q4, Citi said cited by Bloomberg.
  • Phillips 66’s 238,000 b/d Bayway refinery in Linden, New Jersey, is working to restore normal operations following a loss of power in a section of the plant early Tuesday, spokesman Al Ortiz said.
  • Marathon’s 100k b/d Canton, Ohio refinery has begun shutting process units as it begins a turnaround that will last into early/mid-September, Bloomberg reported.
  • Total oil product stocks in the UAE’s Fujairah Oil Industry Zone fell by 1.13m bbl, or 5.5%, in the week ended July 14, according to FOIZ data and Platts.
  • Russia’s energy ministry is manually coordinating seasonal maintenance of the nation’s refineries, according to Bloomberg citing Interfax.
  • Several East Asian state-run oil companies are considering increased purchases of US crude to offset impending US tariffs, while private-sector refiners remain focused on refining economics over political factors, Platts said.
  • MNI Oil Weekly: Download Full Report Here

Historical bullets

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact

Jun-16 18:00
  • RES 4: 0.8624 High Apr 21    
  • RES 3: 0.8592 61.8% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
  • RES 2: 0.8566 High Apr 24 
  • RES 1: 0.8547 High Jun 12
  • PRICE: 0.8515 @ 17:21 BST Jun 16
  • SUP 1: 0.8476/8447 Low Jun 12 / 50-day EMA 
  • SUP 2: 0.8407/8356 Low Jun 4 / Low May 29 and the bear trigger 
  • SUP 3: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
  • SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support

A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The cross has cleared the 50-day EMA and the subsequent bullish follow through, highlights a stronger reversal. This signals scope for a climb towards 0.8592, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch lies at 0.8447, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.   

FOREX: AUD and NZD Outperforming Amid Firmer Risk Sentiment

Jun-16 17:37
  • The US dollar is underperforming on Monday, as more benign price action across the energy and equity markets is conveying a more stable risk backdrop. WTI and Brent crude futures are roughly 7% off the earlier highs, while the e-mini S&P 500 tracks around 1% in the green to start the week.
  • As such, the likes of AUD and NZD have been key beneficiaries within G10, largely mirroring the price action for the major equity benchmarks. AUDUSD has been testing an important resistance point at 0.6550, the Nov 25 high, and a close at current levels would be he highest in 7 months, potentially signalling scope for a stronger recovery to the US election related highs at 0.6688.
  • The EUR has also recovered, briefly rising to a session high of 1.1615. The rally has moderated as we approach the APAC crossover as spot deals close to 1.1580 at typing. Sights remain on 1.1696 next, a Fibonacci projection, as the technical uptrend remains firmly in place. Relative underperformance for the safe havens has elevated EURJPY to the highest level since July last year. A positive close today for the cross would be 8 consecutive winning sessions, with sights now on a couple of daily highs at the 168.00 mark.
  • USDJPY stands a touch higher Monday, but still managed to establish a 110 pip range on the session, keeping attention on the pair high as we approach tomorrow’s BOJ decision and press conference. 145.46 and 142.12 appear the key short-term parameters for the pair.
  • Elsewhere on Tuesday, German ZEW figures are scheduled, before US retail sales and import price data are due.

PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $3.5B EOG 4Pt Launched

Jun-16 17:35
  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 06/16 $4B Hungary $1.5B +5Y +145, $1B +10Y +175, $1.5B +30Y +195
  • 06/16 $3.5B #EOG $500M 3Y +50, $1.25B 7Y +80, $1.25B +10Y +90, $500M 30Y +100
  • 06/16 $2.25B #Enbridge $400M 3Y +67, $600M 5Y +87, $900M 10Y +112, $350M tap 04/05/54 +122
  • 06/16 $700M Unisys 5.5NC2.5 10.5%a
  • 06/16 $500M #Atmos Energy 10Y +80
  • 06/16 $500M #Kimco Realty +10Y +92
  • 06/16 $Benchmark EIB 7Y SOFR+53a
  • 06/16 $Benchmark America Movil +7Y +110a
  • 06/16 $Benchmark IBK 3Y SOFR+58a, 5Y +45a
  • 06/16 $Benchmark Islamic Development Bank Sukuk 5Y SOFR+58a