OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Cracks Supported
Cracks have found support from various signs of refinery disruption both today and over the weekend.
- US gasoline crack up 1.1$/bbl at 19.16$/bbl
- US ULSD crack up 0.7$/bbl at 38.94$/bbl
- Malaysia’s Port Dickson refinery is temporarily halted after storm damage to a product jetty.
- TotalEnergies 238kb/d Port Arthur refinery reported a process upset resulting in emissions, a TCEQ filing showed.
- Ukraine’s military struck the Afipsky oil refinery overnight on Nov. 28-29, according to Ukraine’s General Staff.
- Astra reports that a drone attacked the 100k b/d Slavyansk oil refinery overnight on Nov. 29-30. Local officials said a gas pipe at the refinery was damaged, but no fire occurred.
- India’s oil product consumption increased on the year in November, data from state-run Indian Oil and Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum showed cited by Bloomberg.
- Indian refiners' crude throughput rose by 6.8% m/m in October to 5.50 mn bpd (22.50 million metric tons), according to provisional government data on Monday.
- Pemex refineries processed 1.043m b/d of crude in October, operating at 53% of capacity, up from 48.3% the prior month, according to Bloomberg.
- Nigeria’s Dangote refinery has pledged to produce a minimum monthly supply of 1.5bn litres of gasoline for the domestic market through January as minor maintenance is conducted.
- Brazil expects its oil refining capacity to rise by around 10% between 2025-2035, increasing from 2.22m b/d to 2.56m b/d, energy research company EPE said, cited by BNamericas.
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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (Z5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 95.982 - 76.4% retracement Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg
- RES 2: 95.960 - High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 1: 95.900 - High Oct 17
- PRICE: 95.670 @ 16:16 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 95.510 - Low Sep 3
- SUP 2: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 3: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
Aussie 10-yr futures slipped lower Wednesday on the back of hotter-than-expected Australian inflation. This returned prices lower despite nascent signs of a technical recovery as recently as last week. The sustainability of the pullback will be dependent on prices holding above key short-term support at 95.510, the Sep 3 low. Near-term resistance remains 95.780, the Sep 12 high. A clear break of this level signals scope for a continuation higher and opens 95.960, the 76.4% retracement level for the Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg.
AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (Z5) Struck by Strong CPI
- RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
- RES 2: 96.780 - High Jun 26 (cont)
- RES 1: 96.700 - High Sep 12
- PRICE: 96.375 @ 16:13 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 96.280 - Low May 15 (cont.)
- SUP 2: 95.900 - Low Jan 14 (cont.)
- SUP 3: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
Having bounced well on the back of the mild US CPI print, Aussie 3-yr futures reversed course Wednesday on strong domestic inflation data containing RBA cut pricing through 2026. This keeps prices well below prior resistance at 96.615, the Sep 12 high, and refocuses attention on 96.280 as the next major support.
FED: Gov Waller: Still Advocating For A December Rate Cut
Gov Waller, one of the FOMC's more prominent doves, makes clear in an appearance on Fox Business that he supports a follow-up rate cut in December. He makes reference to Chair Powell's press conference comment that the Fed could skip a cut at the December meeting due in part to a lack of official government data during the federal shutdown (Powell: “what do you do if you are driving in the fog? You slow down").
- Waller says today: "Right now, we know that the labor market has been weak... We know inflation is going to come back down. Inflation expectations are anchored, and in that world, the standard of central bank wisdom is to look through it and proceed with worrying about the labor market. So in my view, we should just look at what the data is telling us and proceed on policy that way.... So this is why I'm still advocating that we cut policy rates in December, because that's what all the data is telling me to do. The fog might tell you to slow down. It doesn't tell you to pull over to the side of the road. You still have to go. You may want to be careful, but it doesn't mean to stop, and ... the right thing to do with policy is to continue cutting."
- This is of particular interest since he appeared to suggest he would have a more cautious outlook on further easing after cutting in October.
