OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Cracks Soften
Sep-10 18:21
Product cracks have lost ground today, with additional pressure from unexpected US stock builds for both gasoline and distillates.
- US gasoline crack down 0.3$/bbl at 20.68$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.4$/bbl at 34.45$/bbl
- EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending Sep 5: Gasoline stocks +1,458 vs Exp -471, Implied mogas demand -609, Distillate stocks +4,715 vs Exp -418, Implied dist demand -391, Tot product stocks +11,491, Ref Run rate +0.60 vs Exp -0.74
- Reuters reports the White House is considering an EPA proposal that would require large oil refineries to cover around half or less of the 1.1 billion gallons of biofuel blending requirements waived for smaller facilities.
- The EU is considering listing some independent Chinese refineries in its 19th package of sanctions against Russia, EU sources told Reuters.
- Port of Fujairah oil product stocks rose 1.518m bbls, to 16.024m bbls, according to FOIZ data.
- Nigeria’s Nupeng union has suspended strikes targeting the Dangote oil refinery, ending two days of gridlock that had shut in its fuel supplies, the union said on Sep. 9, cited by Platts.
- Marine gasoil’s share of the Mediterranean ship fuel market is rising, following the implementation of the IMO’s Emission Control Area, according to Integr8 Fuels data cited by
- MNI Oil Weekly: Download Full Report Here
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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Rental CPI Seen Holding Pre-Pandemic Pace, Supercore To Firm
Aug-11 18:21
- Developments in travel-related services are likely to again play a role in determining the market reaction to “supercore” inflation (core services ex OER & primary rents). Supercore inflation is on balance seen firming slightly to a ‘high’ 0.2% after 0.21% M/M in June. It has been a particularly volatile measure so far this year although it has averaged only a little above a rate consistent with 2% annualized inflation at 0.20% M/M in the year to date.
- As detailed in the MNI CPI Preview (see in full here), OER inflation is seen at a similar pace to its past two months whilst primary rents could accelerate a touch after two softer months. The weighted average of the two has been at or below its average pace from 2019 (0.28% M/M) in four of the past eight months to June (averaging 0.31% M/M) and analyst expectations would see a continuation of this at 0.28% M/M. Some leading indicators point to further moderation ahead although we still caution the fact that the BLS’ quarterly New Tenants’ Rent series tends to be revised higher.
FED: White House Considering Bowman, Jefferson, Logan For Fed Chair: Bloomberg
Aug-11 18:12
Bloomberg reports, citing "two administration officials", that current FOMC members Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman, Vice Chair Jefferson, and Dallas Fed's Logan are in the running to succeed current Fed Chair Powell.
- If this is correct, the reported list has continued to grow: Bloomberg corroborates a few names ("Kevin Hassett, a close economic adviser to Trump, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, economist Marc Sumerlin and former Fed officials Kevin Warsh and James Bullard") reported by the WSJ last week and - in the case of the "Kevins" - by President Trump himself.
- Bloomberg reports that Treasury Secretary Bessent will interview candidates in the coming weeks, and Trump is set to announce Powell's successor "this fall".
- Gov Bowman is not a surprise here given her elevation to Vice Chair for Supervision this year by the White House as well as her currently dovish stance on rate policy chiming with the administration's.
- Jefferson's a bit of a surprise name in the broader context given he's a Biden appointee and has hewed pretty closely to Powell's stance on rates, which has proven unwelcome in the White House.
- That said, Logan may be the most hawkish on rates of any of the candidates yet named (note also that Dallas has an FOMC vote in 2026).
EURGBP TECHS: Returns Lower, But Support Out of Reach
Aug-11 18:00
- RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
- RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 1: 0.8735/8769 High Aug 3 / High Jul 27 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.8652 @ 15:29 BST Aug 11
- SUP 1: 0.8611 Low Jul 31
- SUP 2: 0.8597 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27
EUR/GBP corrected lower Thursday on the BoE rate decision, which sent prices through the weekly low. Despite the intraday weakness, support to watch remains out of reach for now at the 0.8611 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would strengthen a bear threat. More broadly, the trend set-up is bullish. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear uptrend. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 27 high.
