OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Cracks Rise
Cracks are higher on the day as the market digests increasing trade tensions and expectations of a busy maintenance season ahead.
- US gasoline crack up 0.9$/bbl at 16.93$/bbl
- US ULSD crack up 1.8$/bbl at 32.47$/bbl
- EIA inventory change forecasts: Gasoline: +0.544m bbl (bbg), +0.8m bbl (WSJ), +1.4m bbl (Reuters). Diesel: -1.48m bbl (bbg),-1.6m bbl (WSJ), -1.5m bbl (Reuters)
- A global glut in diesel is expected to persist due to incremental supply from Asia and the Middle East but European prices could be supported by European refinery capacity cuts and closures, according to BMI cited by Bloomberg.
- Refiners in Texas and Louisiana demanding discounts and complaining about high water content of crude currently coming from Mexico, Bloomberg reports.
- Unplanned flaring took place Feb 10 at Chevron’s 290,500 b/d El Segundo Refinery, California, according to an AQMD filing.
- Energy Transfer Twin Oak fuel pipeline in Upper Makefield, PA, has reduced rates 20% following a leak, the company said.
- Russia’s Saratov oil refinery has suspended operations for safety reasons after attacks, and key units have not been damaged, Reuters said.
- Russian refineries processed about 5.1m b/d of crude in the first five days of February, down over 300k b/d compared to most of January, Bloomberg reports.
- Russia's Baltic Sea port of Ust-Luga continued fuel exports on Tuesday after a tanker ran aground over the weekend, according to Reuters.
- China’s gasoline consumption is projected to show an annual drop of 4.11% in 2025: OilChem.
- India’s Hindustan Petroleum plans to increase the capacity of its Vizag oil refinery by as much as 20% to meet growing local fuel demand.
- Global implied passenger jet fuel demand is entering its fifth straight week of minimal change, according to BNEF.
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Historical bullets
EURGBP TECHS: Resistance Cleared
- RES 4: 0.8471 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 3: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 2: 0.8424 50.0% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 1: 0.8407 High Jan 9
- PRICE: 0.8386 @ 19:28 GMT Jan 10
- SUP 1: 0.8315/8284 50-day EMA / Low Jan 8
- SUP 2: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
EURGBP traded sharply higher last week. The cross has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8311, and cleared the December highs. This undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Note too that 0.8376, the Nov 19 high and a key resistance, has also been cleared. This opens 0.8424, a Fibonacci retracement. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8315.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 1.2672 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 1.2607 High Dec 30
- RES 2: 1.2533/2576 20-day EMA / High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2367 High Jan 9
- PRICE: 1.2208 @ 19:13 GMT Jan 10
- SUP 1: 1.2187 Low Nov 10 2023
- SUP 2: 1.2138 Low Nov 2 ‘23
- SUP 3: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and last week’s sell-off reinforces the bear trend - the break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The move down also marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.2187 next, the Nov 10 2023 low. Initial resistance is at 1.2367, the Jan 9 high.
EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 3: 1.0513 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30
- RES 1: 1.0358 High Jan 8
- PRICE: 1.0239 @ 18:56 GMT Jan 10
- SUP 1: 1.0215 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.0201 61.8% of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0151 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and recent short-term gains have proved to be a correction. Friday’s move lower resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and mark an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0201 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Resistance to watch is 1.0458, the Dec 30 high.
