OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Cracks Reverse Losses
Cracks have climbed on the day, boosted by larger than expected declines US stocks. Various signs of refinery disruptions have also provided upside.
- US gasoline crack up 0.9$/bbl at 18.97$/bbl
- US ULSD crack up 1.2$/bbl at 40.23$/bbl
- EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending Oct 24: Gasoline stocks -5,941 vs Exp -2,025, Implied mogas demand +470, stocks -3,362 vs Exp -1,932, Implied dist demand -267, Tot product stocks -9,045, Ref Run rate -2.00 vs Exp -0.08
- EIA data showed gasoline stocks fell more than expected by 5.94mbbl to the lowest since November 2024. A rise in weekly implied demand was partially offset by a drop in exports on the week
- Meanwhile, distillates stocks fell by 3.36mbbl amid a drop in weekly implied demand, rise in exports and dip in production from last week.
- ExxonMobil has reported planned maintenance at its Baytown complex. Citgo has reported flaring at its Corpus Christi, Texas, East Plant.
- Ukraine struck two oil refineries and a gas processing plant on the night of Oct. 28-29, according to Ukraine’s General Staff in a social media post.
- OFAC has issued a Russia-related General License authorizing transactions involving Rosneft Deutschland GmbH and RN Refining & Marketing GmbH.
- BPCL plans to shut a 6m mtpa CDU unit and some secondary units at its 12m mtpa Mumbai refinery for maintenance in Q2 2026.
- Oil refining margins could weaken beyond Q4, according to OMV’s CEO
- Oil product stockpiles at Fujairah in the UAE fell 11% w/w, led by a 24% drop in heavy distillates, Platts reports.
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USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 149.96 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 148.61 @ 16:14 BST Sep 29
- SUP 1: 148.38/147.55 High Sep 22 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 146.77 Low Sep 18
- SUP 3: 145.49 Low Sep 17 and a pivot support
- SUP 4: 144.23 Low Jul 7
USDJPY traded higher last week as the pair extended the recovery that started Sep 17. A bullish candle on Sep 17 - a hammer - provided an early reversal signal and remains valid. Also, MA studies remain in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend. 149.14, the Sep 3 high, has been cleared. Sights are on 150.92, the Aug 1 high and key resistance. Pivot support is 145.49, Sep 17 low. Short-term weakness is considered corrective.
SOFR OPTIONS: Nov'25 SOFR Put Fly
- +30,000 SFRX5 95.93/96.00/96.06 put flys, cab ref 96.29
US: Left Wing Violence On The Rise, Raises Prospect Of Federal Response
Halfway through 2025, attacks by far-left extremists outpaced far-right violence for the first time in more than three decades, according to new research from the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), cited by Axios. The report notes, "2025 marks the first time in more than 30 years that left-wing terrorist attacks outnumber those from the violent far right.”
- Daniel Byman, a Georgetown professor who's the lead author of the CSIS study, told Axios in a phone interview that many "extremists on the far right ... are more comfortable with the Trump policies, and that may be ... why we've seen a reduction in violence." Byman warned against the data being used "as an excuse for a crackdown on legitimate organizations."
- Comes as President Donald Trump announces the deployment of federal troops to Portland, Oregon, to quell protests that the White House says are interfering with immigration enforcement.
- “At the request of Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem, I am directing Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, to provide all necessary Troops to protect War ravaged Portland, and any of our ICE Facilities under siege from attack by Antifa, and other domestic terrorists. I am also authorizing Full Force, if necessary,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Figure 1: Left- and Right-Wing US Domestic Terrorism Attacks
Source: Axios, CSIS
