OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Cracks Retreat
US product cracks losing ground today despite surprise larger stock draws in EIA data.
- US gasoline crack down 0.1$/bbl at 24.64$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.5$/bbl at 24.54$/bbl
- EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending May 23: Gasoline stocks -2,441 vs Exp -270, Implied mogas demand +808, Distillate stocks -724 vs Exp +324, Implied dist demand +481, Ref runs -162
- Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Operating at 60% Capacity: Operator
- Russia’s offline primary oil refining capacity is set to rise by 9.5% in June from May to 3.23m tons, according to Reuters.
- GasBuddy Data Show Weekly US Gasoline Demand Rose 2.31% for the Week Ending 5/24 Compared to the Prior Week
- Asia’s jet fuel exports to the US West Coast are expected to hit at least a one-year high in May, Reuters reports.
- Global implied passenger jet fuel demand in the week to June 2 is seen at 6.86m b/d, up 0.9% the week and up around 4.6% year-on-year, BNEF said.
- Total demand for air cargo, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), rose 5.8% on the year in April: IATA.
- Singapore fuel oil stockpiles recovered to their highest in four weeks according to Enterprise Singapore data cited by Reuters.
- HSFO is more expensive than crude oil in NWE, according to General Index, cited by Bloomberg.
- Crude storage capacity utilisation rates among Shandong Independent refineries rose 0.2 percentage points on the week to 42.2% for the seven days to May 28, OilChem said.
- China’s road traffic congestion in China’s 15 key cities rose 3.5 percentage points in the seven days to May 28 BNEF said.
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US DATA: Regional Feds Point To Rising ISM Services Prices Paid (2/2)
The average Regional Fed prices paid indices rose to fresh 25-month highs in April, representing levels historically consistent with ISM Services Prices Paid in the low/mid 60s (was 60.9 in March, after 62.6 in February). There is no consensus yet but we would be unsurprised to see an uptick in the ISM gauge, which is released on Monday.
- This reflected upticks in the Philadelphia and Dallas indices, with the NY Fed's dipping slightly (not included is the Richmond Fed's which uses a different methodology for prices, and also saw a pullback from elevated Feb/Mar readings).
- Note that expectations for future prices continue to rise though this isn't reflected in the ISM gauge.
USDJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 147.05 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 146.54 Low Mar 11
- RES 2: 144.24 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 144.03 High Apr 25
- PRICE: 142.18 @ 16:23 BST Apr 29
- SUP 1: 141.49 Low Apr 23
- SUP 2: 139.79 1.382 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 138.82 1.500 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Jul 28 ‘23
The recovery that started Apr 22 in USDJPY is considered corrective. Resistance to watch is 144.24, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at 147.05. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79 next, a Fibonacci projection.
US DATA: Regional Feds Point To Weaker ISM Services In April (1/2)
The five Regional Fed services surveys for April (NY, Dallas, KC, Philadelphia, Richmond) combined point to a continued deterioration in the ISM Services barometer when it is published on Monday May 5.
- Current expectations are for a tick lower in ISM services to 50.4 in April from 50.8 prior. That would mark a fresh post-June 2024 low.
- The regional Fed average for current conditions fell to the lowest since May 2020 in April, pointing to potential downside in ISM Services vs consensus (at the time, the ISM index was printing in the 40s.) Four of the five surveys (KC excepted) saw a deterioration of conditions in April vs March.
- This is likewise the lowest that service firms' forward expectations have been since May 2020, per the regional Fed average.
