OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Cracks Mixed

In the event of a government shutdown tonight - most of Wednesday's scheduled data should be released as most are generated by non-govt firms. Construction Spending the lone exception tomorrow as the U.S. Census Bureau is the source. Updates to follow if/when an announcement of a closing is made.

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 10/01 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (0.6%, --)
• 10/01 0815 ADP Employment Change (54k, 51k)
• 10/01 0945 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (52.0, 52.0)
• 10/01 1000 ISM Manufacturing (48.7, 49.0)
• 10/01 1000 ISM Prices Paid (63.7, 62.9)
• 10/01 1000 ISM New Orders (51.4, --)
• 10/01 1000 ISM Employment (43.8, --)
• ** 10/01 1000 Construction Spending MoM (-0.1%, -0.1%) **
• 10/01 1130 US Tsy 17W bill auction
• 10/01 1215 Richmond Fed Barkin moderated discussion on economy (text)
• 10/01 ---- Wards Total Vehicle Sales
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI

• -30,000 TYZ5 112-17.5, sell through 112-18.5 post time bid at 1344:24ET, DV01 $2.032M
• The 10Y contract has since bounced off 112-17 post cross low to 112-18.5 last (+2)

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25  
• PRICE: 0.8724 @ 16:33 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 0.8665/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP is in consolidation mode but continues to trade closer to its recent highs, and a bullish theme remains intact. The latest recovery paves the way for an extension towards the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bull theme. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. A breach of this level would instead reinstate a recent bearish threat. First support is 0.8665, the 50-day EMA.