OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Cracks Mixed
US cracks are relatively steady overall holding on to gains seen yesterday after a larger than expected US inventory draws. EU gasoline cracks have come under pressure but remain near the high end of the October range.
- US gasoline crack down 0.1$/bbl at 18.91$/bbl
- US ULSD crack up 0.3$/bbl at 40.51$/bbl
- Total Russian refined product exports averaged about 1.89mb/d in the first 26 days of October, the lowest since the start of 2022, according to Vortexa data cited by Bloomberg. Refining outages including from Ukraine drone strikes and tightening western sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil are impacting Russian energy flows.
- Nigeria has approved a 15% import duty on petrol and diesel, according to a presidential memo seen by Reuters, as the government seeks to protect investment in domestic refining.
- A tanker hauling a cargo of vacuum gasoil from Tuapse, Russia toward Croatia carried out a U-turn earlier this week, according to Bloomberg.
- The UK oil refining industry could eventually disappear completely if the cost of carbon continues to increase, according to Exxon Mobil, cited by Bloomberg.
- Crude storage capacity utilisation rates among Shandong Independent refineries fell 0.6 percentage points on the week to 42.5% for the seven days to Oct. 29, OilChem said.
- European ARA Gasoil rose on the week and now stand at the highest since March and 12% above the seasonal five-year average, according to the latest Insights Global data cited.
- Singapore’s stockpiles of refined oil products fell by 4.8m bbl to 46.6m bbl in the week through Oct. 29, according to official data cited by Bloomberg.
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LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar - In Light of Potential Shutdown
In the event of a government shutdown tonight - most of Wednesday's scheduled data should be released as most are generated by non-govt firms. Construction Spending the lone exception tomorrow as the U.S. Census Bureau is the source. Updates to follow if/when an announcement of a closing is made.
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 10/01 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (0.6%, --)
- 10/01 0815 ADP Employment Change (54k, 51k)
- 10/01 0945 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (52.0, 52.0)
- 10/01 1000 ISM Manufacturing (48.7, 49.0)
- 10/01 1000 ISM Prices Paid (63.7, 62.9)
- 10/01 1000 ISM New Orders (51.4, --)
- 10/01 1000 ISM Employment (43.8, --)
- ** 10/01 1000 Construction Spending MoM (-0.1%, -0.1%) **
- 10/01 1130 US Tsy 17W bill auction
- 10/01 1215 Richmond Fed Barkin moderated discussion on economy (text)
- 10/01 ---- Wards Total Vehicle Sales
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Massive Dec'25 10Y Sale
- -30,000 TYZ5 112-17.5, sell through 112-18.5 post time bid at 1344:24ET, DV01 $2.032M
- The 10Y contract has since bounced off 112-17 post cross low to 112-18.5 last (+2)
EURGBP TECHS: Bull Trigger Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
- RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25
- PRICE: 0.8724 @ 16:33 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 0.8665/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
EURGBP is in consolidation mode but continues to trade closer to its recent highs, and a bullish theme remains intact. The latest recovery paves the way for an extension towards the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bull theme. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. A breach of this level would instead reinstate a recent bearish threat. First support is 0.8665, the 50-day EMA.
