OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Cracks Climb

• BofA expect "no change in policy rates and only fine-tuning in communication" with Thursday's ECB decision.
• “Lagarde will have to acknowledge how recent developments have heightened the risks already flagged in the June meeting. But she will insist on the ECB being in a good position to navigate the uncertain conditions coming up. She is likely to remain firm on deciding meeting-by-meeting and not pre-committing.”
• “Most developments since June would suggest more disinflation ahead, with increased risks of a persistent inflation undershoot. However, the lack of urgency shown in June, together with no major surprises in either activity or inflation data, a bit more frontloaded German fiscal stimulus and renewed uncertainty, all provide the perfect cover for the next forecasting exercise being the right time to take further decisions.”
• “Come September it will be harder for them to claim they are in a good position. The new set of forecasts will struggle to keep 2027 inflation at 2%, while we doubt trade developments will be better than what is already assumed in ECB forecasts.”
• “Absent major surprises in real rates or the currency, we still have strong conviction in the ECB cutting then and again in December.”

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MNI interviews former BOC adviser on Canadian monetary policy outlook, framework -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com