OIL: Oil Prices Rise on Trade Deal Optimism

• Gold’s uncertainty continued overnight with bullion finishing virtually where it started the day.  
• As tariff headlines abounded, earlier gains that gold had eked out were erased, finishing at US$2,984.58
• The White House has said that it will be pursuing tariffs of up to 104% on Chinese goods whilst Chinese Premier Li said that his country had ‘ample tools’ to “fully offset” the tariffs.
• Whilst gold enjoys ‘safe haven’ status amongst investors, in times of high volatility investors seek liquidity, something gold does not exhibit.
• Gold has traded below the 20-day EMA of $3,021.80 and now sits at the mid-point between the 20-day EMA and the 50-day EMA at $2,948.16
• It has not traded below the 50-day EMA since the start of the year.
• Longer term EMA’s remain upward sloping (bullish momentum) but he 20-day EMA has turned down for the first time in 2025. 

US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver remarks at the National Republican Congressional Committee dinner at the National Building Museum in Washington, D.C. LIVESTREAM

• Trump's speech comes after he met with a group of House Republicans in the White House today to discuss concerns over the budget resolution that must pass the House this week to unlock the next step in budget reconciliation, the mechanism via which Republicans intend to legislate Trump's tax and spending agenda along party lines.
• See previous bullet: US: Trump To Meet w/House Republicans Today, Urge Support For Budget Blueprint
• Punchbowl News notes that today's speech will be a "not-so-subtle reminder that the House Republican majority revolves around him" as he exerts pressure on House Republicans to line up behind the Senate's budget blueprint. 

Bloomberg reported that there was a US crude inventory drawdown of 1.1mn barrels last week but they rose 600k at Cushing, according to people familiar with the API data. Gasoline rose 200k while distillate fell 1.8mn. The official EIA data is out later today.