OIL: Libyan Progress Paving Way for Barrels to Return

Sep-26 17:05

As Libyan factions agreed to appoint a new central bank governor September 26, a month-long oil shutdown looks set to end in days Platts reports adding that crude loadings appear to have resumed at a key export terminal.

  • Naji Essa has been nominated to lead the key institution at a signing ceremony organized by the UN mission in Libya.
  • The deal is expected to conclude the oil shutdown which began on August 26.
  • Platts sources said oil production could resume in the next 14 days thanks to the agreement. It should also bring to an end force majeure declarations at the 300,000 b/d Sharara and 80,000 b/d El-Feel fields.
  • Force majeure at the country's western Mellitah terminal lifted as of Sept. 26, according to a loading schedule seen Platts. Loading schedules showed that 600,000 barrels of Mellitah crude supplied by NOC are expected to load Sept 26-28.
  • Zawiya exports remain suspended.
  • The return optimism adds a further bearish element for oil markets this week.

Historical bullets

US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review 2Y Note Auction:

Aug-27 17:04
  • Tsy futures pare losses slightly after the $69B 2Y note auction (91282CLH2) stops .6bp through with 3.874% high yield vs. 3.880% WI; 2.68x bid-to-cover vs. 2.81x prior.
  • Indirect take-up falls to 68.96% vs. 76.57% prior, directs took 19.11% vs. 14.42% last month, primary dealer take-up 11.93% vs. 9.01% prior.
  • The next 2Y auction is tentatively scheduled for September 24.

US TSYS: US TSY 2Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 3.874%; ALLOTMENT 51.01%

Aug-27 17:02
  • US TSY 2Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 3.874%; ALLOTMENT 51.01%
  • US TSY 2Y NOTE AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 11.93% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 2Y NOTE AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 19.11% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 2Y NOTE AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 68.96% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 2Y AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.68

EURUSD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

Aug-27 17:00
  • RES 4: 1.1300 Round number resistance  
  • RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
  • RES 2: 1.1234 1.618 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
  • RES 1: 1.1202 High Aug 26 
  • PRICE: 1.1169 @ 15:30 BST Aug 27
  • SUP 1: 1.1098/1021 Low Aug 22 / 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 1.0925 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 1.0778 Low Aug 1 and a key support
  • SUP 4: 1.0736 Low Jul 3 

EURUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and last week’s appreciation reinforces a bullish set-up. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a rising trend. Sights are on 1.1234 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought and any corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Key short-term support to watch is seen at 1.1021, the 20-day EMA.