OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: WTI Rises
WTI has risen today amid support from geopolitical developments. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure over the weekend and US President Trump’s threats against Venezuela have been supportive.
- WTI JAN 26 up 1.2% at 59.27$/bbl
- OPEC confirmed that it would pause its production increases in Q1, a time of seasonally low demand while market concern remains over the projected record surplus for 2026.
- Talks continued between the US and Ukraine in Florida over the weekend with Secretary of State Rubio saying that they were “productive” but “more work” is needed. Envoy Witkoff will meet President Putin on Tuesday.
- Ukraine struck two sanctioned tankers late on Friday. Today four explosions occurred near the Mersin tanker off the coast of Senegal before water began to flow into the engine room, the Turkish company Beşiktaş Shipping told RIA Novosti.
- CPC shipments maybe decrease in H1 2026 after a mooring was attacked and damaged over the weekend, Kommersant said. Loadings at Novorossiysk “are continuing at this time,” Tengizchevroil said.
- Observed shipments of CPC Blend crude fell in November to a 10-month low: Bloomberg
- Trump wrote on Truth Social that Venezuela’s airspace is “closed in its entirety”, which was seen as an act of aggression by Venezuela. An Oval Office meeting is scheduled today at 5 pm ET between Trump and key defence officials.
- Venezuelan oil exports edged higher in November, even as US military activity in the Caribbean ramped up: Bloomberg citing Kpler data.
- India’s state-run refiners IOC and Bharat Petroleum have bought Russian crude for January delivery amid attractive discounts from non-sanctioned sellers: Bloomberg.
- The Atlantic crude arbitrage to Asia for North Sea Forties, CPC and WAF light grades has closed after Murban prices weakened: Sparta.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (Z5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 95.982 - 76.4% retracement Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg
- RES 2: 95.960 - High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 1: 95.900 - High Oct 17
- PRICE: 95.670 @ 16:16 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 95.510 - Low Sep 3
- SUP 2: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 3: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
Aussie 10-yr futures slipped lower Wednesday on the back of hotter-than-expected Australian inflation. This returned prices lower despite nascent signs of a technical recovery as recently as last week. The sustainability of the pullback will be dependent on prices holding above key short-term support at 95.510, the Sep 3 low. Near-term resistance remains 95.780, the Sep 12 high. A clear break of this level signals scope for a continuation higher and opens 95.960, the 76.4% retracement level for the Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg.
AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (Z5) Struck by Strong CPI
- RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
- RES 2: 96.780 - High Jun 26 (cont)
- RES 1: 96.700 - High Sep 12
- PRICE: 96.375 @ 16:13 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 96.280 - Low May 15 (cont.)
- SUP 2: 95.900 - Low Jan 14 (cont.)
- SUP 3: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
Having bounced well on the back of the mild US CPI print, Aussie 3-yr futures reversed course Wednesday on strong domestic inflation data containing RBA cut pricing through 2026. This keeps prices well below prior resistance at 96.615, the Sep 12 high, and refocuses attention on 96.280 as the next major support.
FED: Gov Waller: Still Advocating For A December Rate Cut
Gov Waller, one of the FOMC's more prominent doves, makes clear in an appearance on Fox Business that he supports a follow-up rate cut in December. He makes reference to Chair Powell's press conference comment that the Fed could skip a cut at the December meeting due in part to a lack of official government data during the federal shutdown (Powell: “what do you do if you are driving in the fog? You slow down").
- Waller says today: "Right now, we know that the labor market has been weak... We know inflation is going to come back down. Inflation expectations are anchored, and in that world, the standard of central bank wisdom is to look through it and proceed with worrying about the labor market. So in my view, we should just look at what the data is telling us and proceed on policy that way.... So this is why I'm still advocating that we cut policy rates in December, because that's what all the data is telling me to do. The fog might tell you to slow down. It doesn't tell you to pull over to the side of the road. You still have to go. You may want to be careful, but it doesn't mean to stop, and ... the right thing to do with policy is to continue cutting."
- This is of particular interest since he appeared to suggest he would have a more cautious outlook on further easing after cutting in October.
