OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: WTI Pulls Back
WTI has pulled back today, although has pared losses after falling to an intraday low of $74.30/b. Fears of imminent involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict appeared to ease after Trump said he would give himself up to two weeks to decide on taking military action. Nevertheless, ongoing political risks have driven WTI up nearly 10% on the week.
- WTI JUL 25 down 0.4% at 74.87$/bbl
- US oil rig count from Baker Hughes: 438 (-1) - down 41 rigs, or 8.6% on the year. This is the lowest since Oct. 2021.
- President Trump signalled a decision for the US to strike Iran within two weeks which leaves the door open for diplomacy and negotiations.
- US President Trump said on Wednesday that he has approved a plan but is still hoping that Tehran will agree to abandon its nuclear programme.
- A senior Iranian official said that Iran is ready to discuss limitations on its uranium enrichment but that ‘zero enrichment will undoubtedly be rejected.’
- The US issued fresh sanctions against Iran-related entities, including 2 crude tankers.
- Citibank analysts suggest Brent prices in the $75-78/b range if the war disrupts Iranian exports; an obstruction to the Strait of Hormuz could drive oil to $90/b.
- Iran is maintaining crude oil supply by loading tankers one at a time and moving floating oil storage much closer to China: Reuters.
- Iranian oil exports have surged, and production month-to-date appears to be heading to a 7-year high of 3.5m b/d: Bloomberg.
- Oil refiners in China are not currently concerned about potential disruption to Middle Eastern amid record onshore inventories, Bloomberg reports.
- The EU has paused a plan for a stricter price cap on Russian oil exports: Bloomberg.
- ADNOC has significantly reduced volumes for several July-loading Murban crude cargoes: Platts.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EURGBP TECHS: Briefly Pierces 50-day EMA
- RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.8541/8557 High May 2 / High Apr 28
- RES 1: 0.8456 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8441 @ 16:00 BST May 21
- SUP 1: 0.8394 Low May 16
- SUP 2: 0.8359 1.236 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8277 1.618 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
The cross rallied to show briefly above the 50-day EMA as the EUR rallied across the board into the Wednesday close. A clear break and close above would conclude the recent bearish phase and shift attention to 0.8541 resistance, the May 2 high. To the downside, the 0.8400 handle has been breached in recent weeks, an extension below which would open 0.8359, a Fibonacci projection.
BONDS: Europe Pi: OATs Flat, BTPs Long, Gilts Very Long (2/2)
- OAT: OAT remains in "flat" structural positioning, where it has been for all of May after a spell in short territory in March/April. The most recent week's trade was indicative of long setting.
- GILT: Gilt structural positioning remains "very long" into the roll, compared with "flat" where it spent most of the prior 7 months. The latest week saw some some shorts set.
- BTP: BTP remains in its typical "long" territory. Trade indicative of short covering was seen in the most recent week.
US: Trump Approval Underwater On Inflation, Economy, And Tariffs - Marquette
A new survey from Marquette Law School has found that President Donald Trump’s approval is lagging on issues considered the most important by US voters, including inflation and the economy.
- Marquette: “Across seven specific issues, approval of the president’s job performance ranges from a high of 56% on border security to a low of 34% on inflation and the cost of living.”
- Marquette: “Inflation and cost of living is rated the most important issue by 36%, followed by threats to democracy at 19% and the economy at 13%. Medicare and Social Security is rated the fourth most important issue at 10%, followed by immigration at 9%. The federal budget deficit is seen as most important by 4%, health care by 3%, abortion policy by 2%, and foreign policy by 2%.”
Figure 1: Trump Job Approval Across Issues
Source: Marquette Law School
