OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: WTI Down 1.4% on Week
Dec-19 19:38
Oil prices are ticking up further today after a recovery earlier this week amid concern that the US could introduce further Russia sanctions. The overall trend remains lower, down around 1.4% on the week, with ongoing concerns of a 2026 supply glut while the impact of geopolitical events for now appear short lived.
- WTI JAN 26 up 0.9% at 56.66$/bbl
- Bajer Hughes US rig count: Oil: 406 (-8) - down 77 rigs, or 15.9% on the year. This is the lowest since Sep. 2021
- US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Dec. 19 that nothing will impede US enforcement of sanctions in the Caribbean.
- Hyperion, a tanker sanctioned by the US for transporting Russian oil, is on track to test President Trump’s blockade: Bloomberg
- US President Donald Trump said he believes Ukraine peace talks in are "getting close to something" ahead of a US meeting with Russian officials this weekend.
- The European Council imposes restrictive measures on additional 41 Russan shadow fleet tankers.
- Lower oil prices this week presented the Trump administration an opportunity to consider enforcing Venezuelan oil sanctions and threaten further measures against Russia: JP Morgan.
- Putin told his annual press conference on Friday that Russia does not believe Ukraine is ready for peace talks.
- Ukraine hit an oil tanker from Russia’s shadow fleet in the Mediterranean for the first time, Bloomberg reported.
- Ukrainian drones attacked a drilling rig at Lukoil’s Grayfer Offshore project in the Caspian Sea, sources told Bloomberg, although it cannot be independently verified.
- Goldman Sachs said Brent is expected to average $56/bbl next year.
- CPC Blend crude exports are planned at around 1.65mb/d in January compared to 1.7m b/d for December: Reuters.
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SOFR OPTIONS: Scale Seller Dec'25 SOFR Midcurve Call Spread
Nov-19 19:35
- -50,000 0QZ5 97.00/97.25 call spds, 4.25-4.0 ref 96.915
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Remain Mixed, Focus Still on Nvidia Earnings
Nov-19 19:30
- US equity indexes held inside session ranges late Wednesday, the DJIA underperforming as it looked to extend session lows. Markets still digesting the October FOMC minutes release that showed rate cut opinions "strongly differed". Participants await the release of Nvidia Q3 earnings after the close.
- Currently, the DJIA trades down down 144.48 points (-0.31%) at 45946.4, S&P E-Minis down 6.5 points (-0.1%) at 6632.75, Nasdaq up 24.7 points (0.1%) at 22456.95.
- Communication Services and Information Technology sector shares continued to lead advances in the second half, media & entertainment stocks buoyed the former: Alphabet +3.33%, TKO Group Holdings +1.92%, Take-Two Interactive Software +1.51% and Match Group +0.38%.
- Chip makers primarily supported the tech sector: ON Semiconductor +3.99%, KLA Corp +3.20%, Applied Materials +3.20%, Lam Research +2.99%, Broadcom +2.35%, Seagate Technology +1.87% and NVIDIA +1.83%
- Conversely, Energy and Consumer Staples sector shares continued to underperform, a drop in crude prices (WTI -1.30 at 59.44) weighing on oil and gas stocks: Valero Energy -2.77%, APA -2.73%, EOG Resources -2.58%, Phillips 66 -2.37% and Occidental Petroleum -2.25%.
- Meanwhile, broadline retailers weighed on the Consumer Staples sector: Archer-Daniels-Midland -5.80%, Bunge Global -3.51%, Target -2.78%, Dollar General -2.15% and Estee Lauder Cos -1.92%.
USDJPY TECHS: Clears to New Highs
Nov-19 19:30
- RES 4: 157.87 High Jan 10
- RES 3: 157.27 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 157.24 2.382 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
- RES 1: 156.80 High Nov 19
- PRICE: 156.79 @ 17:25 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 153.68 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 152.82 Low Nov 7
- SUP 3: 151.74 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 150.47 Low Oct 21
USDJPY rallied again Wednesday, topping several resistance levels to extend the bull run. This also confirms once again, a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 157.24 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 153.68, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average is required to signal scope for a corrective pullback.
