OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: WTI Climbs
WTI drifted higher amid strength in oil product markets, with WTI on track for its highest close since Nov. 3.
- WTI DEC 25 up 1.4% at 61$/bbl
- EIA surveys: +0.87m bbl (Bbg), +1.2m bbl (Reuters)
- The bill to provide US government funding until 30 January passed the Senate with the support of a number of Democrats. The House of Reps will vote on Wednesday EST.
- The US urges NATO allies to stop buying Russian energy, adding pressure to countries such as Turkey, Bloomberg said.
- US President Trump said that a US-India trade deal is close which would reduce the average tariff rate. However, Russia’s Interfax reported that India continues to buy Russian crude despite pressure from the US to reduce purchases.
- Five large Indian refiners accounting for two-thirds of India’s imports of Russian oil so far this year haven’t placed any orders for Russian oil for December, sources told Bloomberg.
- Russia’s four-week average seaborne crude shipments fell for a third week, sliding to a two-month low, Bloomberg reports. Reuters reports ‘steady’ shipments in November.
- CPC Blend oil exports for November have been revised down to about 1.45m b/d from 1.55m b/d: Reuters.
- Saudi Arabia and Iraq have allocated full term crude volumes to Indian refiners for December, Reuters said.
- Saudi Aramco is set to sell ~36m-39m bbl of contractual supplies of December-loading crude to customers in China: Bloomberg.
- Novatek has restored its Ust-Luga gas condensate complex to full capacity following repairs of equipment damaged by August drone attacks, Reuters said
- Key North Sea crude market indicators slid to the lowest in more than a year, Bloomberg said citing Platts data
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
