OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Ticks Up
WTI is set for gains today, having regained earlier losses. Geopolitical developments weighed against the supply/demand outlook as seaborne crude in transit continues to rise.
- WTI NOV 25 up 0.6% at 57.88$/bbl
- EIA Crude Surveys (bbl): +2.1m (Bbg), +1.2m (Reuters), -2.5m (Macquarie)
- the US will buy 1m bbl for the SPR for December and January delivery.
- The meeting between the US’ Rubio and his Russian counterpart Lavrov has been put on hold. Plans for US and Russian officials to meet including Presidents Trump and Putin are in focus with the market watching for sentiment on the future of Russian sanctions.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) told reporters that he doesn't expect to move a Russia sanctions bill during the US government shutdown.
- Russia’s four-week average seaborne crude shipments in the week to Oct. 19 rose 80kb/d on the week to the highest since May 2023 at 3.82mb/d, according to Bloomberg.
- China sets the 2026 crude imports quota for private companies at 257m tons, in line with the quota for 2025.
- India’s Reliance Industries bought Middle Eastern crudes last week and may place more orders, in a sign that Western pressure against Russian flows may be starting to impact its procurement patterns, Bloomberg reports.
- The oil market outlook is bearish as a surplus has started to show although impending stock builds for November are already priced in, according to Goldman Sachs. Brent is forecast falling to $52/bbl in Q4 2026.
- Var Energi ASA sees oil’s supply and demand outlook stabilizing next year, with prices not dropping significantly below $60/bbl, according to Bloomberg.
- Oil prices are expected to stabilize around current levels, according to UBS cited by Reuters.
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Historical bullets
USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Reversal Signal
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 149.64 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bear leg
- RES 1: 148.28/149.14 High Sep19 / High Sep 3
- PRICE: 147.95 @ 20:15 BST Sep 19
- SUP 1: 145.49 Low Sep 17 and a pivot support
- SUP 2: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
- SUP 3: 144.10 61.8% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
- SUP 4: 143.45 Low Jul 3
USDJPY recovered sharply from last Wednesday’s low. A bullish candle pattern on Tuesday - a hammer formation - provided an early reversal signal. On Wednesday, the pair breached a number of important short-term support levels, however, this has not confirmed a bearish threat. A continuation higher would open 149.14, the Sep 3 high. Pivot support is 145.49, the Sep 17 low.
EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Structure
- RES 4: 0.8800 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.8744 High Aug 7
- RES 1: 0.8729 High Sep 19
- PRICE: 0.8722 @ 20:01 BST Sep 19
- SUP 1: 0.8643/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
Recent weakness in EURGBP has been corrective and last week’s recovery confirmed the end of the corrective phase. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a bull theme and reinstate a recent bearish threat. For bulls, the resumption of gains opens 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. First support is 0.8643, the 50-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching A Trendline Support
- RES 4: 1.3893 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 14 - Sep 3 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3753 High Jul 2
- RES 1: 1.3661/3726 High Sep 18 / 17
- PRICE: 1.3468 @ 19:58 BST Sep 19
- SUP 1: 1.3463 Low Sep 19
- SUP 2: 1.3433 Trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low
- SUP 3: 1.3333 Low Sep 3
- SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the move down from last Wednesday’s high is considered corrective - for now. However, the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA and this signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch lies at 1.3449, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3726, the Sep 17 high.
