OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Surges on Israel-Iran Attacks
WTI has surged today to levels not seen since Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement in early April. The rise is driven by major escalation in Middle East tensions after Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities/military targets.
- WTI JUL 25 up 7.1% at 72.9$/bbl
- Baker Hughes rig count: Oil: 439 (-3) - down 46 rigs, or 9.5% on the year.
- Israel comments suggest that military operations will continue until its objectives are met, while focus is also on Iran's response. The country stated it will respond harshly against the US and Israel in response to the attacks.
- The IDF said it identified missles launched from Iran towards Israel and is trying to intercept.
- Upside pressure being added to by Trump’s comments that “it will only get worse,” and that “the next already planned attacks” will be “even more brutal,” as the market focuses on the potential for an extended bombing campaign by Israel.
- US President Donald Trump has also told Reuters that, "it's not too late for Iran to make a deal.
- Reports suggest Israel has struck Iran again throughout the day including in Shiraz, Tabriz and Natanz, while Iran sent a wave of ~100 drones to attack Israel.
- Iran reported that there was no damage to its oil refineries or storage tanks, according to Bloomberg.
- Crude time spreads surged higher amid the risk from escalating Middle East tensions and fears of a protracted conflict. The contango structure beyond early 2026, suggesting market oversupply expectations from rising OPEC+ supply and ongoing trade tensions, has now almost disappeared.
- Goldman Sachs said that it assumed there will not be disruptions to Middle East oil supply after Israel launched an attack on Iran, Reuters reported.
- MNI Commodities: Low Probability of Hormuz Impact – Download Full Report Here
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US TSY OPTIONS: Jun'25 2Y Ratio Call Spread
- 4,500 TUN5 103.75/1042x3 call spds, 4 net ref 103-15.5
EURGBP TECHS: Edges Off Lows
- RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.8541/8557 High May 2 / High Apr 28
- RES 1: 0.8465 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8434 @ 15:52 BST May 14
- SUP 1: 0.8403 Low May 12
- SUP 2: 0.8400 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.8359 1.236 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
EURGBP is trading just above recent lows. The cross traded to a fresh, short-term cycle low Monday, strengthening a bearish theme. It has also cleared support at 0.8465, the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower. Sights are on 0.8415 next, a Fibonacci retracement. This level has been pierced, a clear break of it would open 0.8400 and below. Key near-term resistance is 0.8541, the May 2 high. A break of it is required to signal a potential reversal.
US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage climbs to $165.024B this afternoon from $144.214B yesterday, total number of counterparties at 36. Usage had fallen to $54.772B last Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021. Conversely, usage had surged to the highest level since December 31, 2024 on Monday, March 31: $399.167B.
