OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Struggles for Direction
WTI has regained ground in a day where Trump headlines have sparked volatility. The latest rally appears to be driven by news that the Pentagon has greenlit providing US long-range missiles to Ukraine. Providing Tomahawks would be a sign of the US taking a harder stance against Russia.
- WTI DEC 25 up 0.4% at 60.82$/bbl
- Baker Hughes US oil rig count: 414 (-6)
- Previous highs and lows came after reports of U.S plans to strike Venezuela being refuted by Trump.
- Aside from the Venezuela headlines, weak China data is adding to rising global supply with another OPEC+ output rise expected this weekend while focus remains on the impact of Western sanctions on Russian exports.
- OPEC+ will likely agree another modest oil output target hike for December three sources familiar with the talks told Reuters. The values cited by other outlets has been another 137k b/d rise.
- Russia isn’t expected to oppose any potential OPEC+ output hike plans of around 137k b/d for December, according to Rystad.
- China’s Official manufacturing PMIs slipped further into contraction in October to +49 from +49.8, below expectations of +49.6 and the worst result since April.
- IOC has bought five cargoes of Russian oil for December arrival from non-sanctioned entities, Reuters sources said.
- Saudi Arabia may cut its December Arab Light OSP to Asia by $1.25/bbl, a Bloomberg survey shows. Reuters survey expects a reduction between $1.2-$1.5/bbl.
- KPC offered additional heavy crude for prompt loading in November following an unplanned Al-Zour refinery outage, Reuters said.
- Chevron’s CFO said there’s a risk the oil-price slump persists into 2026 amid robust output.
- Goldman Sach sees Brent averaging $56/b in 2025.
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Historical bullets
US TSY OPTIONS: Dec'25 2Y Broken Put Fly
- 6,500 TUZ5 103.87/104.37/104.50/104.87 broken put flys ref 104-09.62
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $2B Vistra Operations 2Pt Launched
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 10/01 $2.5B #Bahrain $1.5B +8Y Sukuk 5.875%, $1B 12Y 6.625%
- 10/01 $2B #Vistra Operations $750M 3Y +75, $500M 5Y +93, $750M 10Y +118
- 10/01 $750M Alpha Generation $750M 8.25NC3 6.375%
- 10/01 $500M #Convatec Group 10Y +125
- 10/01 $500M Jane Street Grp 2033 tap
- 10/01 $Benchmark IFC 5Y SOFR+38
EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
- RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25
- PRICE: 0.8702 @ 16:28 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: 0.8667/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
EURGBP has pulled back from its recent highs - a correction. A bullish theme remains intact. The latest recovery paves the way for an extension towards the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bull theme. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. A breach of this level would instead reinstate a recent bearish threat. First support is 0.8667, the 50-day EMA.
