OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Struggles for Direction
Aug-08 18:24
WTI has struggled for direction today, initially losing ground amid signs of progress towards a peace agreement in Ukraine. However, uncertainties on the chances for a deal keep the market more volatile.
- WTI SEP 25 up 0% at 63.89$/bbl
- Baker Hughes US rig count: Oil: 411 (1) - down 72 rigs, or 14.9% on the year. This is a slight tick up after hitting its lowest since Sep. 2021 last week.
- Washington and Moscow are aiming to reach a deal that would lock in Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine, according to Bloomberg, with the report slightly easing supply risks amid US threats of further Russian sanctions.
- A Trump-Putin meeting is tentatively being planned for the end of next week, according to Fox News reporter Jacqui Heinrich.
- This week Trump announced a doubling of tariffs on Indian imports to 50% as a penalty for the ongoing purchase of Russian oil, prompting local state-owned oil refiners to pull back from purchases and look elsewhere.
- IOC and BPCL have bought at least 22mbbl of non-Russia crude for Sep./Oct delivery, Reuters sources said.
- Indian refiners’ race to buy alternative grades to replace Russian oil hasn’t yet boosted West African crudes, traders involved in the market told Bloomberg.
- Reliance Industries is likely to shift back to its traditional Middle Eastern sources for oil if India yields to pressure from President Trump to cut Russian imports: Reuters.
- OPEC+ is likely to keep targets flat until 2Q26 after completing output increases in September: FGE
- China’s crude imports are expected to decline in the remainder of 2025 from June’s near two-year high, Platts said.
- Threats of sanctions on or tariffs are making Indian refiners rethink their buying strategy, bearish for the outlook of Urals crude to India: Kpler.
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STIR: Projected Rate Cuts Steady to Pre-Minutes Levels
Jul-09 18:18
- Projected rate cut pricing has gained momentum vs morning (*) levels: Jul'25 at -1.7bp (-1.2bp), Sep'25 at -18.6bp (-17.3bp), Oct'25 at -33.7bp (-31.7bp), Dec'25 at 52bp (-49.3bp).
US TSYS: Update: Post June FOMC Minutes React
Jul-09 18:16
- Treasury futures extending session highs after June FOMC minutes released - Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures currently trade +15.5 at 111-08.5 (110-23.5L / 111-08.5H), resistance to watch is at 111-28, the Jul 3 high.
- Curves mixed: 2s10s -2.429 at 48.025; 5s30s +0.555 at 95.738.
- USD inching lower, Bbg index BBDXY -0.20 at 1196.44; US stocks firmer but off early session highs: SPX eminis +25.75 at 6297.75
US: Voters Response To OBBB Sets Up Challenging Midterm Elections For GOP
Jul-09 18:16
A new survey from YouGov has found that 53% of Americans strongly or somewhat oppose the GOP’s Big Beautiful Bill, with 35% supporting it. YouGov notes: “Opposition to the budget has risen 10 percentage points since we first asked about it in April of this year.”
- YouGov notes: “52% of Americans — including 80% of Democrats and 22% of Republicans — believe the federal budget deficit will increase as a result of Trump's budget; 11% think it will remain the same and 19% think it will decrease
- “Very few Americans support reducing or eliminating funding for four social services asked about: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and SNAP … Majorities want funding to be increased for Social Security (61%) and Medicare (56%), and sizable shares do as well for Medicaid (49%) and SNAP (41%)”
- The survey highlights the political challenge for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. While the bill's passage is a major win for the Trump administration, it appears to open the door for a Democrat messaging campaign centred on cuts to safety net programmes.
Figure 1: “Thinking about the following U.S. program, do you believe it should be given more or less funding? (% who say each program should be given...)”
Source: YouGov
