OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Slides on Week

$17.05B to price Wednesday - well off Tuesday's record high of $50.95B, with details from a handful of names yet to announce:

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 09/03 $2B *AIIB 3Y SOFR+31
• 09/03 $1.5B *OKB 5Y SOFR+43
• 09/03 $1.4B #Dow Chemical $750M +5Y +115, $650M +10Y +145
• 09/03 $1.25B #Plains All American $700M +5Y +105, $550M +10Y +142
• 09/03 $1.2B Clarios 7NC3 6.75%
• 09/03 $1.1B *PTT Global Chem $600M PerpNC5.25 6.5%, $500M PerpNC10 7.125
• 09/03 $1.05B #PECO Energy $525M each: 10Y +68, 30Y +75
• 09/03 $1B #Suzano Netherlands +10Y +145
• 09/03 $850M #Nordea Bank Perp Nov'33 6.75%
• 09/03 $850M #Southern Co Gas $425M 3Y +52, $425M 10Y +93
• 09/03 $800M #F&G Global $500M 3Y +108, $300M 3Y SOFR+132.5
• 09/03 $750M #Pacific Life 30Y +105
• 09/03 $600M *Commercial Bank (PSQC) 5Y +100
• 09/03 $500M #BNY Mellon PerpNC5 5.95%
• 09/03 $600M Tallgrass Energy 8.5NC3.5 6.75%
• 09/03 $600M Cleveland-Cliffs 8.25NC3.25 7.75%
• 09/03 $500M #Colburn 10Y +120
• 09/03 $500M Lithia Motors 5NC2 5.625%
• 09/03 $500M OneMain Finance 7.5NC3 6.5%
• 09/03 $500M Century Comm 8NC3 6.875%
• 09/03 $Benchmark Swedish Export Credit 5Y SOFR+51
• 09/03 $500M #Blackstone Private Credit 5Y +160
• 09/03 $Benchmark Petrobras Global +5Y 5.4%, +10Y 6.6%
• 09/03 $Benchmark Turkie Wealth Fund +5Y 7.625%a, 10Y 8.735%a
• 09/03 $Benchmark Sumitomo Life Insurance 30NC10 5.875%

• RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 0.8728 76.4% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 14 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8713 High Sep 2  
• PRICE: 0.8683 @ 16:38 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 0.8628/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP traded higher Tuesday, resulting in a breach of resistance at 0.8674, the Aug 25 and 29 high. The break signals a stronger reversal and suggests scope for climb towards 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Key support to watch lies at  support at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate the recent bearish threat.  

• Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari (’26 voter) saw he sees the breakeven hiring rate about 75k a month.
• The estimate fits nicely within the range of estimates we go into in our NFP preview published a little earlier today (https://media.marketnews.com/USNFP_Sep2025_Preview_8025c04073.pdf)
• He also adds that he’s skeptical that AI is showing up in economic data. 

• As noted in the preview, there continues to be focus on the potential “breakeven” rate of payrolls growth, that is the pace at which the unemployment rate would be kept steady when allowing for differences between the establishment and household surveys.
• With significant moderation in labor force growth having broadly come along with reduced labor demand, there appears to be a rough range of estimates that this breakeven rate could be between 50-100k.
• Of the FOMC members, the estimates tend to be capped at either end by those from the hawkish and dovish end of the spectrum. St Louis Fed’s Musalem, a ’25 FOMC voter and clear hawk, thinks it’s reasonable to expect the breakeven rate could be below 50k whereas Fed Governor Waller, a firm dove seen as leading contender for next Fed Chair, viewed it a few months ago as being in the 80-100k region.