OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Slides on Week
Oct-03 18:11
Crude prices have regained some ground amid rising tensions in the Middle East, although are still on track for a net decline on the week, with OPEC expected to raise output at its Sunday meeting.
- WTI NOV 25 up 1% at 61.07$/bbl
- Baker Hughes US rigs: Oil: 422 (-2) - down 57 rigs, or 11.9% on the year.
- OPEC, which meets on Sunday, increased the October target by 137kb/d and at least that amount is likely in November although with conflicting reports on the size of a potential hike of up to 500kb/d.
- OPEC nations are trying to reach consensus on how to adjust their oil production next month, with either a modest or more substantial supply increase possible, Bloomberg reports citing delegates.
- Oil markets are very focussed on a potential oversupply story heading into this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting according to RBC.
- OPEC crude output rose by 400k b/d in September as the group formally completed the unwinding of 2.2m b/d of cuts, Bloomberg reports.
- Aramco will be under pressure to cut its November OSPs for European buyers, Argus said.
- Following the G7 finance ministers meeting an agreement on substantial additional sanctions on Russia's means to finance its war in Ukraine is close, Bloomberg said.
- Russia’s ability to divert crude to the global market is diminishing as crude export capacity has fallen after recent refinery attacks, according to Bloomberg.
- Iraqi crude exports from Kurdistan to Turkey were halted briefly for technical reasons and flows have since resumed, according to Rudaw cited by Bloomberg.
- JPMorgan maintains a $61/bbl Brent price forecast for Q4 as the bank sees September as a turning point, with the market now heading towards a ‘sizeable surplus.’
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PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: Over $17B to Price Wednesday
Sep-03 18:06
$17.05B to price Wednesday - well off Tuesday's record high of $50.95B, with details from a handful of names yet to announce:
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 09/03 $2B *AIIB 3Y SOFR+31
- 09/03 $1.5B *OKB 5Y SOFR+43
- 09/03 $1.4B #Dow Chemical $750M +5Y +115, $650M +10Y +145
- 09/03 $1.25B #Plains All American $700M +5Y +105, $550M +10Y +142
- 09/03 $1.2B Clarios 7NC3 6.75%
- 09/03 $1.1B *PTT Global Chem $600M PerpNC5.25 6.5%, $500M PerpNC10 7.125
- 09/03 $1.05B #PECO Energy $525M each: 10Y +68, 30Y +75
- 09/03 $1B #Suzano Netherlands +10Y +145
- 09/03 $850M #Nordea Bank Perp Nov'33 6.75%
- 09/03 $850M #Southern Co Gas $425M 3Y +52, $425M 10Y +93
- 09/03 $800M #F&G Global $500M 3Y +108, $300M 3Y SOFR+132.5
- 09/03 $750M #Pacific Life 30Y +105
- 09/03 $600M *Commercial Bank (PSQC) 5Y +100
- 09/03 $500M #BNY Mellon PerpNC5 5.95%
- 09/03 $600M Tallgrass Energy 8.5NC3.5 6.75%
- 09/03 $600M Cleveland-Cliffs 8.25NC3.25 7.75%
- 09/03 $500M #Colburn 10Y +120
- 09/03 $500M Lithia Motors 5NC2 5.625%
- 09/03 $500M OneMain Finance 7.5NC3 6.5%
- 09/03 $500M Century Comm 8NC3 6.875%
- 09/03 $Benchmark Swedish Export Credit 5Y SOFR+51
- 09/03 $500M #Blackstone Private Credit 5Y +160
- 09/03 $Benchmark Petrobras Global +5Y 5.4%, +10Y 6.6%
- 09/03 $Benchmark Turkie Wealth Fund +5Y 7.625%a, 10Y 8.735%a
- 09/03 $Benchmark Sumitomo Life Insurance 30NC10 5.875%
EURGBP TECHS: Trades Through Resistance
Sep-03 18:00
- RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7
- RES 2: 0.8728 76.4% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8713 High Sep 2
- PRICE: 0.8683 @ 16:38 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: 0.8628/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
EURGBP traded higher Tuesday, resulting in a breach of resistance at 0.8674, the Aug 25 and 29 high. The break signals a stronger reversal and suggests scope for climb towards 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Key support to watch lies at support at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate the recent bearish threat.
FED: Kashkari Sees Breakeven Hiring Rate Of 75k A Month, Within Ranges
Sep-03 17:49
- Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari (’26 voter) saw he sees the breakeven hiring rate about 75k a month.
- The estimate fits nicely within the range of estimates we go into in our NFP preview published a little earlier today (https://media.marketnews.com/USNFP_Sep2025_Preview_8025c04073.pdf)
- He also adds that he’s skeptical that AI is showing up in economic data.
- As noted in the preview, there continues to be focus on the potential “breakeven” rate of payrolls growth, that is the pace at which the unemployment rate would be kept steady when allowing for differences between the establishment and household surveys.
- With significant moderation in labor force growth having broadly come along with reduced labor demand, there appears to be a rough range of estimates that this breakeven rate could be between 50-100k.
- Of the FOMC members, the estimates tend to be capped at either end by those from the hawkish and dovish end of the spectrum. St Louis Fed’s Musalem, a ’25 FOMC voter and clear hawk, thinks it’s reasonable to expect the breakeven rate could be below 50k whereas Fed Governor Waller, a firm dove seen as leading contender for next Fed Chair, viewed it a few months ago as being in the 80-100k region.
