OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Slides
Crude prices have drifted lower today amid more positive signs of progress towards peace in Ukraine and continued economic concerns following Trump’s punitive 25% additional tariff on India.
- WTI SEP 25 down 0.9% at 63.8$/bbl
- The New York Post reports that, according to a White House official, US President Donald Trump will only meet with President Vladimir Putin for bilateral talks if the Russian leader also commits to a face-to-face meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
- President Trump said that special envoy Witkoff made “great progress” in Russia and that he should meet with President Putin next week. He sounded very uncertain though on the chance of a truce despite his August 8 deadline.
- RBC: “Despite the strong pushback from the Modi government, we do believe that the White House has the tools to force a significant reduction in India imports of Russian oil.”
- India is unlikely to step down from its stance on its Russian oil purchases yet, Platts reports, though refiners are adopting a cautious approach to Russian crude.
- Russia crude oil prices to India fall amid demand uncertainty due to EU sanctions and the treat of US penalties, according to Kpler cited by Bloomberg.
- China's July crude oil imports rose 11.5% year on as state-owned refineries maintained high rates, although flows fell from the highest in nearly two years in June.
- Analysts at Citibank have kept their base case for Brent in the low $60s/b for year-end 2025, Reuters reported.
- Chevron-chartered tankers begin returning to Venezuela following US license, Reuters said citing shipping data.
- Supply of crude will grow and constraints in egress from western Canada may emerge by early 2027: South Bow.
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Historical bullets
USDJPY TECHS: Bounce Extends
- RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3
- RES 3: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
- RES 2: 148.03 High Jun 23
- RES 1: 146.77/98 76.4% of the Jun 23 - Jul 1 bear leg / Intraday high
- PRICE: 146.79 @ 16:26 BST Jul 8
- SUP 1: 144.95 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 144.23/142.68 Low Jul 7 / 1
- SUP 3: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 upleg
USDJPY continues to appreciate. The latest recovery has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, at 144.95, and the daily close above the EMA highlights a stronger reversal. 146.19, the Jun 24 high, has been cleared. Sights are on 146.77, a Fibonacci retracement. It has been pierced, a clear break would open 148.03, the Jun 23 high. Support points to watch are 144.95, the 50-day EMA, and 144.23, the Jun 7 low.
EURGBP TECHS: Holding On To Most Of Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8694 High Apr 14
- RES 1: 0.8670 High Jul 02
- PRICE: 0.8630 @ 16:25 BST Jul 8
- SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Jul 7
- SUP 2: 0.8555/8507 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 0.8459 Low Jun 11
- SUP 4: 0.8407 Low Jun 4
The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and the cross is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position - highlighting a dominant uptrend. 0.8648, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg, has been pierced. A continuation higher would further strengthen bullish conditions and open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 0.8555, the 20-day EMA.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $2.25B American Honda 3Pt Launched
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 07/08 $3B *IADB (Inter-American Development Bank) 10Y SOFR+61
- 07/08 $2.25B #American Honda $900M 2Y +65, $600M 2Y SOFR+87, $750M 7Y +100
- 07/08 $Benchmark BFCM 3.25Y +72, 3.25Y SOFR+99
- 07/08 $750M Gray Media 7NC investor calls
- Potential roll-over from Monday:
- 07/?? $Benchmark Nissan Motor 5Y 7.25%a, 7Y 7.75%a, 10Y 8%a
- 07/?? $Benchmark NTT Finance Corp multi tranche investor calls: 2Y, 3Y fix/SOFR, 5Y fix/SOFR, 7Y, 10Y, 12Y -- in addition to EUR issuance 2Y, -4Y, 8Y and 12Y
