OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Rises
Jul-17 18:27
Crude is higher today but remains within the trading range seen since Tuesday with focus on US trade talks, potential secondary tariffs on Russia, and near-term market tightness.
- WTI AUG 25 up 1.7% at 67.49$/bbl
- US President Trump is said to be eyeing tariff rates of 10% -15% on more than 150 countries. The rate could be read as positive, providing some certainty for smaller countries with a lower rate than initially threatened, a Natixis economist told Bloomberg.
- The FT reports that the EU is preparing a list of potential tariffs on US services as part of its possible retaliation if US trade talks fail.
- Trump has also offered renewed optimism about prospects of a deal with Beijing on illicit drugs and hinted that a trade deal with India was close, while an agreement could possibly be reached with Europe as well, Reuters says.
- Trump’s White House Press Secretary said that secondary sanctions would apply to Russian oil buyers.
- India is confident it can secure alternative supplies should Russian shipments decline due to ‘secondary sanctions’ considered by the US, Oil Minister Hardeep Puri said on Thursday,
- NBC reports that a US assessment has found that two Iranian nuclear sites could see a restart of operations within months.
- Saudi Arabia’s seaborne oil flows remain at elevated rates in the wake of higher production from the Kingdom last month, Bloomberg said.
- Iraq has approved a plan for its semi-autonomous Kurdish region to transfer oil to Iraq – a move towards restoring flows halted for more than two years.
- Drone attacks on oilfields in Iraq’s Kurdistan region have cut crude production by an estimated 140k to 150k b/d, two energy officials told Reuters on Wednesday.
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US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Risk-Off on Middle East Tension, Will US Join?
Jun-17 18:26
- Still off early Monday lows, stocks are retreating late Tuesday as Middle East tensions heat up. Following a series of social media posts around midday, wires said Pres Trump is considering joining Israel on striking Iran. Markets currently await a state Department press briefing.
- Currently, the DJIA trades down 320.42 points (-0.75%) at 42195.11, S&P E-Minis down 51.25 points (-0.84%) at 6038.5, Nasdaq down 185.9 points (-0.9%) at 19515.53.
- A mix of Health Care, Materials and Consumer Discretionary sectors underperformed in the first half, but it was a handful of Tech stocks led laggers: Enphase Energy -22.82%, First Solar -17.95% and AES -9.12% as the Senate looks to end wind & solar tax credits.
- Pharmaceuticals traded weaker as the WH considers cracking down on drug company advertising: Charles River Laboratories -4.56%, Bio-Techne -3.78%, IQVIA Holdings -3.15%, Thermo Fisher Scientific -2.93% and AbbVie -2.73%.
- The Energy sector outperformed as said geopol risk buoyed crude prices (WTI +2.804 at 74.57) in turn supported oil and gas stocks: Valero Energy +2.32%, APA Corp +2.17%, Diamondback Energy +2.15% and Chevron +1.92%.
SWAPS: Spreads Widen As Fed Set To Hold Open Meeting On SLR
Jun-17 18:07
The Federal Reserve has provided notice that it will hold an Open Board Meeting at 2pm ET on Wednesday Jun 25, with the subject: "Proposed revisions to the Board’s supplementary leverage ratio standards".
- While there were no more details provided, the announcement appears to have rekindled speculation that the regulatory authorities will soon align on an easing of SLR standards, which is seen to be supportive of demand for Treasuries vs swaps.
- The 10Y SOFR swap spread widened in Treasuries' favor by 0.9bp to -52.6bp. The spread remains tighter than the -50bp level that has prevailed since Treasury market turmoil in April.
- This is unlikely to be the end of the process: Gov Bowman who heads Fed supervision said earlier this month that the Fed will host a conference in July addressing several aspects of large bank regulation including SLR, though in a nod to broader reforms, she says there will also be potential changes discussed at the event including GSIB surcharges, Basel III capital requirements, and stress testing.
US: State Department Press Conference Underway Shortly
Jun-17 18:01
US State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce is shortly scheduled to brief reporters from the Department of State. LIVESTREAM
- If the presser goes forward, there will be considerable market interest on any details that could flesh out the administration's position on Iran, including the prospect of diplomacy or outreach to Tehran from Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
- US President Donald Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One yesterday, without conviction, that he “may” dispatch either Vice President JD Vance or Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff for talks with Iranian officials.
