OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Rises

• RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3  
• RES 3: 148.27 High Apr 9
• RES 2: 146.33 50-day EMA and key resistance 
• RES 1: 145.92 High May 2
• PRICE: 143.40 @ 16:35 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 141.97 Low Apr 29   
• SUP 2: 139.79 1.382 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 138.82 1.500 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 4: 138.07  Low Jul 28 ‘23

The primary trend direction in USDJPY remains bearish and gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.33, remains intact. A clear break of this average would highlight a possible reversal. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79 next, a Fibonacci projection. First key support to watch is 141.97, the Apr 29 low.   

• Having rallied into the FOMC reaction on tariff headlines, rates reaction is relatively contained following the FOMC statement.
• Fed Funds implied rates are 0.5-3.5bp lower for 2025 meetings.
• That includes levels that imply 82bp of cuts for 2025 as a whole but that still has near enough an entire 25bp cut omitted vs pre ISM mfg levels from Thursday.
• Cumulative cuts from an assumed 4.33% effective: 7.5bp Jun, 24bp Jul, 45bp Sep, 63bp Oct and 82bp Dec.
• SOFR implied yields are up to 3bps lower post-announcement, led by the Mar 2026.

• -11,500 TYM5 113 calls, 11 ref 111-16