OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Falls

New Gallup data shows 54% of adults view capitalism favorably, down from 60% in 2021. "The downward shift was especially pronounced among Democrats and independents, while Republicans’ opinions of capitalism improved slightly," per Semafor. 

• Semafor notes: “The findings come as a handful of prominent Democrats — most recently, New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani — identify proudly as Democratic socialists, criticize capitalist frameworks, and push to shift power from corporations to workers.”
• Axios notes on the survey: "For the first time, fewer than half of Democrats view capitalism positively. They're also the only political group to view socialism more positively than capitalism. Ratings of "big business" have dropped significantly, especially among Democrats. However, Americans remain overwhelmingly supportive of small business and free enterprise despite their skepticism of larger market forces."

Figure 1: Share of US Adults with Positive View of Capitalism, by Political Identification

Source: Semafor, Gallup

French President Macron names Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu as Prime Minister, per multiple wires. MNI had previously flagged that Lecornu was favoured to replace Bayrou if elections were not called following the government's collapse Monday.

• EUR heads a little lower on the news.
• Earlier this week Politico noted: "Lecornu has established his credentials as a loyal Macron ally, honing a political style that chimes well that of the president — in particular his engagement with local-level politics."
• Per Bloomberg just now, "Macron tasked Lecornu with “consulting the political forces in parliament with a view to adopting a budget,” after which he would propose the formation of a new government."
• Per the AP, "A former conservative who joined Macron’s centrist movement in 2017, he has held posts on local authorities, overseas territories and during Macron’s yellow vest “great debate,” where he managed mass anger with dialogue."

• RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 0.8728 76.4% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 14 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8713 High Sep 2  
• PRICE: 0.8660 @ 17:31 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: 0.8635/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP continues to trade closer to its recent highs despite the fade into the Tuesday close. The cross has recently cleared resistance at 0.8674, the Aug 25 and 29 high. The break signals a stronger reversal and suggests scope for climb towards 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Key support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate the recent bearish threat.