OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Falls
Jul-31 18:25
WTI has lost ground today amid trade uncertainty, though remains near its highest since late-June given Trump’s threats of secondary tariffs on Russia.
- WTI SEP 25 down 1.4% at 69.05$/bbl
- The market is watching for any signs of progress towards a peace agreement that could see Russia avoid Trump’s threat of sanctions/secondary tariffs as part of his 10-day deadline.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday he warned Chinese officials that continuing to buy Russian oil would lead to big tariffs due to legislation in Congress.
- The US Treasury Department announced fresh sanctions on Wednesday on over 115 Iran-linked individuals, entities and vessels.
- The US sanctioned a fourth Chinese oil terminal as part of the new wave of sanctions.
- Indian state refiners have stopped buying Russian oil in the past week as discounts narrowed this month and as US President Trump warned against purchasing oil from Moscow, industry sources told Reuters.
- US refiners expect the heavy crude market to become more favourable following a supply tightness and higher prices in H1, Bloomberg said.
- Global oil demand surged in the final week of July, primarily driven by increased demand for gasoline and jet fuel in the US, coupled with heightened trade and port activity in China, according to JP Morgan.
- Asia is expected to step up imports of US WTI crude in Q4 after Middle East oil prices strengthened: Reuters.
- Libya raised exports of Sharara and Sarir/Mesla crude grades for July, according to a revised loading programme, cited by Bloomberg.
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Sep'25 2Y Sale
Jul-01 18:10
- -12,035 TUU5 103-28.5, sell through 103-28.75 post time bid at 1354:06ET, DV01 $465,000.
- The 2Y trades 103-28.38 last (-4)
EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Trend Conditions Remain Intact
Jul-01 18:00
- RES 4: 0.8694 High Apr 14
- RES 3: 0.8648 76.4% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
- RES 2: 0.8624 High Apr 21
- RES 1: 0.8597 High Jul 01
- PRICE: 0.8588 @ 16:18 BST Jul 1
- SUP 1: 0.8514/8482 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 0.8459 Low Jun 11
- SUP 3: 0.8407 Low Jun 4
- SUP 4: 0.8356 Low May 29 and the bear trigger
The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and Monday’s strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies have recently crossed and are currently in a bull-mode position - highlighting a dominant uptrend. 0.8592, 61.8% of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg, has been pierced. Sights are on 0.8624, the Apr 21 high. Support to watch lies at 0.8482, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: June ADP Employment
Jul-01 17:50
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 07/02 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (1.1%, --)
- 07/02 0730 Challenger Job Cuts YoY (47.0%, --)
- 07/02 0815 ADP Employment Change (37k, 95k)
- 07/02 1130 US Tsy $65B 17W bill auctions
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
