OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Falls
Jul-16 18:24
Crude markets pared losses since EIA data showed crude stocks showed a larger than expected fall in stocks this week, down 3.9m bbl compared to the forecast 0.67m bbl.
- WTI AUG 25 down 0.1% at 66.45$/bbl
- EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending Jul 11: Crude stocks -3,859 vs Exp -667, Crude production -10, SPR stocks -300, Cushing stocks +213
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says that he expects to meet his Chinese counterpart in the coming weeks. Trump said he was making progress on trade talks with the EU.
- Reuters reports that, according to EU diplomats, the Union has once again failed to approve the 18th package of sanctions on Russia.
- A widening of the Brent-Dubai EFS has choked off the once-lucrative arbitrage for light sweet crude flowing from West to East.
- Global oil inventories have risen in recent months but prices have been able to hold their ground for now, according to a Morgan Stanley note cited by Bloomberg.
- Observed crude oil shipments to Europe from the US Gulf for July are set to remain below the year-to-date average for a second month, Bloomberg reports.
- China accelerated the pace at which it built its crude oil stockpiles in June, according to Clyde Russell at Reuters.
- An explosive-laden drone targeted an oil field which US company Hunt Oil has developed in the Duhok province of Iraqi Kurdistan, the counter terrorism department of Kurdistan said, cited by Bloomberg.
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EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact
Jun-16 18:00
- RES 4: 0.8624 High Apr 21
- RES 3: 0.8592 61.8% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
- RES 2: 0.8566 High Apr 24
- RES 1: 0.8547 High Jun 12
- PRICE: 0.8515 @ 17:21 BST Jun 16
- SUP 1: 0.8476/8447 Low Jun 12 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8407/8356 Low Jun 4 / Low May 29 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The cross has cleared the 50-day EMA and the subsequent bullish follow through, highlights a stronger reversal. This signals scope for a climb towards 0.8592, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch lies at 0.8447, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.
FOREX: AUD and NZD Outperforming Amid Firmer Risk Sentiment
Jun-16 17:37
- The US dollar is underperforming on Monday, as more benign price action across the energy and equity markets is conveying a more stable risk backdrop. WTI and Brent crude futures are roughly 7% off the earlier highs, while the e-mini S&P 500 tracks around 1% in the green to start the week.
- As such, the likes of AUD and NZD have been key beneficiaries within G10, largely mirroring the price action for the major equity benchmarks. AUDUSD has been testing an important resistance point at 0.6550, the Nov 25 high, and a close at current levels would be he highest in 7 months, potentially signalling scope for a stronger recovery to the US election related highs at 0.6688.
- The EUR has also recovered, briefly rising to a session high of 1.1615. The rally has moderated as we approach the APAC crossover as spot deals close to 1.1580 at typing. Sights remain on 1.1696 next, a Fibonacci projection, as the technical uptrend remains firmly in place. Relative underperformance for the safe havens has elevated EURJPY to the highest level since July last year. A positive close today for the cross would be 8 consecutive winning sessions, with sights now on a couple of daily highs at the 168.00 mark.
- USDJPY stands a touch higher Monday, but still managed to establish a 110 pip range on the session, keeping attention on the pair high as we approach tomorrow’s BOJ decision and press conference. 145.46 and 142.12 appear the key short-term parameters for the pair.
- Elsewhere on Tuesday, German ZEW figures are scheduled, before US retail sales and import price data are due.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $3.5B EOG 4Pt Launched
Jun-16 17:35
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 06/16 $4B Hungary $1.5B +5Y +145, $1B +10Y +175, $1.5B +30Y +195
- 06/16 $3.5B #EOG $500M 3Y +50, $1.25B 7Y +80, $1.25B +10Y +90, $500M 30Y +100
- 06/16 $2.25B #Enbridge $400M 3Y +67, $600M 5Y +87, $900M 10Y +112, $350M tap 04/05/54 +122
- 06/16 $700M Unisys 5.5NC2.5 10.5%a
- 06/16 $500M #Atmos Energy 10Y +80
- 06/16 $500M #Kimco Realty +10Y +92
- 06/16 $Benchmark EIB 7Y SOFR+53a
- 06/16 $Benchmark America Movil +7Y +110a
- 06/16 $Benchmark IBK 3Y SOFR+58a, 5Y +45a
- 06/16 $Benchmark Islamic Development Bank Sukuk 5Y SOFR+58a
