OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Eases Back
Crude markets are losing ground as the close approaches amid volatile trading. The market has erased earlier gains as it weighs supportive Chinese crude import data against concerns over the ongoing trade war on global economic growth.
- WTI MAY 25 down 0.5% at 61.2$/bbl
- OPEC has cut its oil demand growth forecast citing the expected impact from recently announced US tariffs and higher uncertainty.
- China's crude oil imports in March rebounded sharply from the previous two months to the highest since August at 51.41m tons and were up nearly 5% from a year earlier, customs data showed.
- The shale industry faces uncertainty as first-quarter results loom and recent tariff policy plans spark an energy selloff, with analysts probing contingency plans, Argus said.
- Keystone operator South Bow said that PHMSA approves restart of the line, according to a Bloomberg headline. This headline came after reports that the operator removed an earlier statement that had said it received regulatory approval.
- Venezuela’s PDVSA Unloads Oil It Had Ordered Chevron to Return: Bloomberg.
- Iran and the US held indirect talks in Oman over the weekend, discussing Iran's nuclear program and lifting of sanctions in a "constructive atmosphere" with "mutual respect".
- UBS has cut its brent crude forecasts from June 2025 through Q1 2026 by $12/b to $68/b, Bloomberg reported.
- Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $63/bbl and WTI $59/bbl for the remainder of 2025 with a surplus of 800kb/d in 2025 and 1.4mb/d in 2026.
- JPMorgan has cut its 2025 brent crude forecast to $66/bbl from $73/bbl previously.
- Oil’s fall below $60/bbl during the worst of last week’s sell off had priced in zero demand growth this year and was probably an overreaction, Gunvor said.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
