OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Climbs on Week
Dec-13 18:07
WTI is on track for its highest close since Nov. 22. Support has come from potential additional sanctions on Russia, coupled with a higher Middle East risk premium.
- WTI JAN 25 up 1.6% at 71.16$/bbl
- US oil rig count was unchanged on the week at 482 rigs, according to Baker Hughes. This is down 19 rigs, or 3.8% on the year.
- US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said there are “encouraging signs that Gaza ceasefire is possible,” after a meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in Ankara, Turkey today.
- UAE’s Adnoc has cut crude allocations to some Asian customers by approximately 230kb/d across grades, according to Bloomberg sources.
- The Brent average base case is $76/bbl in 2025 with a modest 0.4mb/d surplus, according to Goldman Sachs.
- The Iranian Light price discount to China has narrowed to about $2.50/bbl against ICE Brent on a DES basis.
- Output from Kazakhstan’s biggest oil field Tengiz, remained 20% below its scheduled plan on average in December, Reuters estimates.
- The European physical crude market is still mixed with North Sea strength proving a mirage, as Forties loading premiums shed $1/b in two days, according to a note by Sparta.
- Increased Russian ESPO Blend crude and non-Iranian Middle Eastern grades contributed to China’s stockpiling in November, according to Vortexa.
- BNEF estimates that oil demand growth in 2025 will be 1.3m b/d.
- Pemex’s oil platforms and all but one crude-exporting terminal remain shut due to bad weather, according to a statement cited by Bloomberg.
- CPC loadings are expected to be 1.35m-1.45m b/d for January, sources told Bloomberg.
- An excess of supertankers in the Middle East compared with crude cargoes for the next 30 days narrowed to19%, according to Bloomberg sources, the lowest since Sep. 27
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EURUSD TECHS: Heading South
Nov-13 18:00
- RES 4: 1.0997 High Oct 8
- RES 3: 1.0937 High Nov 5 and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 1.0761/0811 Low Oct 23 / 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0683 Low Nov 6
- PRICE: 1.0571 @ 16:15 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: 1.0556 Low Nov 13
- SUP 2: 1.0517 Low Nov 1 2023
- SUP 3: 1.0484 1.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0448 Low Sep 3 2023 and a key support
EURUSD remains in a clear downtrend and this week’s extension reinforces the current trend condition. The pair has traded lower again, Wednesday. This confirms a resumption of the bear trend and, note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 1.0517 support, the Nov 1 ‘23 low. Initial firm resistance is 1.0811, the 20-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: Thursday Data Calendar: Weekly Claims, PPI, Chair Powell Eco-Outlook
Nov-13 17:55
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Nov-14 0700 Fed Gov Kugler moderated mon-pol discussion in Uruguay
- Nov-14 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (221k, 220k)
- Nov-14 0830 Continuing Claims (1.892M, 1.873M)
- Nov-14 0830 PPI Final Demand MoM (0.0%, 0.2%); YoY (1.8%, 2.3%)
- Nov-14 0830 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.2%, 0.2%); YoY (2.8%, 3.0%)
- Nov-14 0830 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM (0.1%, 0.2%); YoY (3.2%, --)
- Nov-14 0900 Richmond Fed Barkin fireside chat on economy (no text, Q&A)
- Nov-14 1130 US Tsy $95B 4W, $90B 8W bill auctions
- Nov-14 1500 Fed Chair Powell economic outlook from Dallas Fed (text, Q&A)
- Nov-14 1645 NY Fed Williams on markets (text, no Q&A)
OPTIONS: Upside In Euribor Features Wednesday
Nov-13 17:52
Wednesday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:
- ERH5 97.87/98.12/98.37c fly, bought for 4.5 in 21k (ref 97.765, 12del).
- ERM5 98.25/98.50cs vs 97.50p, bought the cs for half in 26.9k
- SFIZ4 95.45/95.55cs vs 95.30p, sold the cs at 0 in 7.5k.
