OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Climbs
May-28 18:27
Crude is on the rise amid headlines from both the US and Russia suggesting a more hawkish take on resolving the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
- WTI JUL 25 up 1.6% at 61.88$/bbl
- US Crude Inventory Forecasts: -173k bbl (Bbg), +0.5m bbl (Reuters), -0.6m bbl (WSJ)
- At its meeting today, OPEC+ reaffirmed the level of overall crude oil production for OPEC and non- OPEC participating countries as agreed in the 38th ministerial meeting until 31 December 2026, Reuters said.
- A smaller group led by Saudi Arabia will decide on May 31 whether to further unwind voluntary cuts.
- Goldman sees one last 411k b/d production increase in July at OPEC+’s virtual meeting on May 31.
- Three Reuters sources said that OPEC+ is likely to commit to an accelerated oil output hike for July at its meeting May 31. Bloomberg sources previously reported something similar last.
- CNN reports suggest that President Trump could move ahead with new sanctions on Russia in the coming days as he grows frustrated with Russian strikes on Ukraine.
- US-sanctioned tankers have emerged in the Russia-India crude trade, Bloomberg reports.
- Iran has appeared to soften its stance on nuclear enrichment, offering to pause enrichment temporarily if the United States recognises Tehran's right to enrich uranium for its civilian nuclear programmes, according to Reuters.
- The Trump administration has issued a new authorisation for Chevron that would allow it to keep assets in Venezuela, but not to export oil or expand its activities, Reuters reports.
- The wildfire threat has increased in Alberta after the number of out-of-control blazes rose to 20 from 10 on Tuesday, Bloomberg said.
- Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods said capital allocation plans will be maintained even if oil declines toward $50/bbl.
- MNI Commodity Weekly: https://enews.marketnews.com/ct/x/pjJsdgSKnusI6a0yJUsiHQ~k1zZ8KXr-kA8x67DWJ-jptIPjO1OcQ
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US DATA: Manufacturing Prices Paid Picked Up Again In April (2/2)
Apr-28 18:26
Meanwhile the average of current Prices Paid indices across four regional Feds (Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia - excludes Richmond which publishes a % change and not an index) hit a 33-month high (Jul 2022) in April.
- Three of the four in our index saw an increase in April vs March with the exception of KC which was unchanged, and notably Richmond prices paid hit the highest since January 2023.
- Current consensus is for ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid to rise to 73.0 in April from 69.4 prior, marking a fresh post-June 2022 high.
- The regional Fed readings suggest an increase in that category is certainly to be expected, and the magnitude seen in consensus in the low 70s doesn't appear to be far off.
US DATA: Regional Feds Point To Sharp ISM Manufacturing Pullback In April (1/2)
Apr-28 18:20
Four of the five major regional Fed manufacturing surveys deteriorated in April (Philadelphia, Richmond, Kansas City, Dallas - the exception was New York which was still very weak) versus March.
- This dragged the average of the 5 indices to the lowest since May 2020. At that time, the ISM Manufacturing index was in the low 40s.
- Average forward-looking expectations fell to the lowest since October 2022 on average in the 5 Fed surveys.
- This was the 3rd consecutive sequential deterioration in the 5-Fed index average, and we would expect the April ISM Manufacturing index to do likewise in April (50.9 in January, 50.3 in February, 49.0 in March).
- Current consensus is for ISM manufacturing (out Thursday at 1000ET) to print 48.0 in April, but we would see the risks to this firmly to the downside.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update
Apr-28 18:06
$17.025B to price Monday:
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 04/28 $5B #Alphabet $750M 5Y +32, $1.25B 10Y +47, $1.5B 30Y +62, $1.5B 40Y +70
- 04/28 $2.5B #Philip Morris $750M 3Y +58, $400M 3Y SOFR+83, $750M 5Y +75, $600M 10Y +93
- 04/28 $2B #Keurig Dr Pepper $500M each: 1.5Y SOFR+58, 3Y +68, 5Y +83, 10Y +98
- 04/28 $1.25B #Procter & Gamble $700M 5Y +28, $550M 10Y +43
- 04/28 $1.125B #Consumer Energy $500M +5Y +67, $625M 10Y +87
- 04/28 $1.1B #Northern States Power $600M 10Y +83, $500M 30Y +98
- 04/28 $1.1B #CBRE Services $600M 5Y +120, $500M 10Y +135
- 04/28 $750M #General Dynamics 10Y +78
- 04/28 $700M *Posco Holdings $400M 5Y +137.5, $300M 10Y +157.5
- 04/28 $700M *Kookmin Bank $400M 3Y +77.5, $300M 5Y +82.5
- 04/28 $500M #Colgate Palmolive 5Y +38
- 04/28 $500M #DR Horton +5Y +103
- 04/28 $Benchmark Goldman Sachs investor calls
