OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Climbs

Meanwhile the average of current Prices Paid indices across four regional Feds (Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia - excludes Richmond which publishes a % change and not an index) hit a 33-month high (Jul 2022) in April. 

• Three of the four in our index saw an increase in April vs March with the exception of KC which was unchanged, and notably Richmond prices paid hit the highest since January 2023.
• Current consensus is for ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid to rise to 73.0 in April from 69.4 prior, marking a fresh post-June 2022 high.
• The regional Fed readings suggest an increase in that category is certainly to be expected, and the magnitude seen in consensus in the low 70s doesn't appear to be far off.

Four of the five major regional Fed manufacturing surveys deteriorated in April (Philadelphia, Richmond, Kansas City, Dallas - the exception was New York which was still very weak) versus March.

• This dragged the average of the 5 indices to the lowest since May 2020. At that time, the ISM Manufacturing index was in the low 40s.
• Average forward-looking expectations fell to the lowest since October 2022 on average in the 5 Fed surveys.
• This was the 3rd consecutive sequential deterioration in the 5-Fed index average, and we would expect the April ISM Manufacturing index to do likewise in April (50.9 in January, 50.3 in February, 49.0 in March).
• Current consensus is for ISM manufacturing (out Thursday at 1000ET) to print 48.0 in April, but we would see the risks to this firmly to the downside.

$17.025B to price Monday:

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 04/28 $5B #Alphabet  $750M 5Y +32, $1.25B 10Y +47, $1.5B 30Y +62, $1.5B 40Y +70
• 04/28 $2.5B #Philip Morris $750M 3Y +58, $400M 3Y SOFR+83, $750M 5Y +75, $600M 10Y +93
• 04/28 $2B #Keurig Dr Pepper $500M each: 1.5Y SOFR+58, 3Y +68, 5Y +83, 10Y +98
• 04/28 $1.25B #Procter & Gamble $700M 5Y +28, $550M 10Y +43
• 04/28 $1.125B #Consumer Energy $500M +5Y +67, $625M 10Y +87
• 04/28 $1.1B #Northern States Power $600M 10Y +83, $500M 30Y +98
• 04/28 $1.1B #CBRE Services $600M 5Y +120, $500M 10Y +135
• 04/28 $750M #General Dynamics 10Y +78
• 04/28 $700M *Posco Holdings $400M 5Y +137.5, $300M 10Y +157.5
• 04/28 $700M *Kookmin Bank $400M 3Y +77.5, $300M 5Y +82.5
• 04/28 $500M #Colgate Palmolive 5Y +38
• 04/28 $500M #DR Horton +5Y +103
• 04/28 $Benchmark Goldman Sachs investor calls