OIL: EIA Oil Stocks Preview: Inventories and Refinery Runs Expect Little Change
Nov-20 14:02
EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30ET (15:30GMT) today.
- Crude inventories are expected to draw by 0.05mbbl, gasoline to draw 0.09mbbl and distillates to draw 0.02mbbl for the week to Nov. 15, a Bloomberg survey average shows.
- US crude inventories rose in data last week to the highest since early August despite a dip in production back to 13.4mb/d and with another increase in refinery runs back to mid-September levels. The EIA STEO last week revised US crude production for 2024 up 10k b/d to 13.23m b/d. Exports remained down at 3.44mbbl despite a recovery last week. Cushing stocks are still near the five year range low.
- US Gulf Coast, PADD3, refineries boosted runs for a sixth week to a seasonal record at 9.31mb/d. For week ending Nov. 15 IIR Energy saw an average of 607kb/d of refining capacity offline in the U.S and expects 291kb/d offline for week ending Nov. 22. A Bloomberg survey shows a small 0.03 percentage points rise this week.
- Gasoline stocks unexpectedly fell last week with a recovery in implied demand back just above the previous five year average offsetting higher production. Inventories are the lowest since Nov 2022. Demand could see a boost over the Thanksgiving holiday according to GasBuddy and AAA travel surveys, amidst gasoline prices that have fallen to multi-year lows.
- Distillates stocks last week showed a smaller drop amid increased implied demand, a dip in production but a drop in exports. Despite the higher weekly demand, the four week average edged lower to remain below the previous seasonal five year range.
- The API data yesterday showed a crude build of 4.8mbbl, a Cushing draw of 0.3mbbl, a gasoline draw of 2.5mbbl and distillates draw of 0.7mbbl.
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BOE: Bailey due to speak three times during the week
Oct-21 13:56
- Governor Bailey is due to speak three times during the week (and then again on Saturday). On Tuesday he will give the keynote address at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum; on Wednesday a fireside chat at the IIF (alongside the IMF meetings); on Thursday the Mike Gill Memorial Lecture at the CFTC. None of these speeches yet have a title. On Saturday Bailey will speak on “The future of money and payments.”
- The main thing the market will be watching for is whether he repeats the language he used in his Guardian interview earlier this month when he said that if the inflation data surprised to the downside the MPC would need to be “more activist”. His comments have not been repeated by other MPC members – but other than Pill there have not really been any other speakers since his interview.
- For reference, Bailey's comments in the Guardian moved SONIA markets more than 12 ticks intraday - but the moves were largely reversed within a couple of sessions, helped by the strong US employment print.
- The week ahead also sees appearances from hawks Greene and Mann (but we have heard from both recently and don’t expect any surprises). More interesting would be any comments on monpol from Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden; she has two public appearances this week but both are on regulation so probably won’t offer that opportunity (one panel on “the future of cross-border payments”, the other on “Global priorities in financial sector regulation”).
BOE APF SALES RESULTS: Another APF operation dominated by one gilt sale
Oct-21 13:54
- Another APF operation where the sale of one bond dominates the operation - this time the 4.25% Mar-36 gilt saw GBP606.9mln of the GBP750mln sales.
- Every APF operation since September has been dominated by the majority of the sales being of one gilt,
- Note also that all of the sales had a maturity in the Sep-34 to Mar-36 window.
GOLD TECHS: Northbound
Oct-21 13:52
- RES 4: $2800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $2785.3 - 3.382 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 2: $2767.1 - 3.236 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2740.6 - High Oct 21
- PRICE: $2737.2 @ 14:50 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: $2685.6 - High Sep 26
- SUP 2: $2637.0/2604.9 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 8
- SUP 3: $2584.9 - Low Sep 20
- SUP 4: $2573.7 - 50-day EMA
Gold continues to appreciate. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary bull trend. The yellow metal has also cleared $2700.0, reinforcing current trend conditions. Sights are on $2767.1 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support is $2645.1, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
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