OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Gasoline Cracks Fall

Jun-06 18:36

US gasoline cracks are reversing some of the recovery seen yesterday as the market weighs fuel demand heading into the summer driving season.

  • US gasoline crack down 0.7$/bbl at 22.68$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 24.7$/bbl
  • Surplus middle distillates volumes from India West Coast and the Middle East Gulf are flowing into import hubs of NW Europe and the Med and keeping margins strong despite poor demand, Vortexa said.
  • Norway's Mongstad oil refinery is ramping up output on Friday following an outage on Thursday, Equinor said.
  • Thai Oil has suspended crude loading at its refinery in Chonburi after an oil leak at 11.54 p.m Bangkok time on Thursday.
  • The Dangote refinery has bought a third of its crude from the US this year, mostly made up of WTI Midland, Bloomberg reports.
  • WTI offers Dangote an advantage over Nigerian crudes that result in improved yields of reformate and better gasoline blending capabilities, Bloomberg reports.
  • The refinery in central Japan shut the 155kb/d No.3 crude distillation unit on May 19 for scheduled maintenance, according to a company spokesperson cited by Reuters.
  • India’s oil product consumption increased 1.1% on the year in May to the highest since March 2024, according to oil ministry Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell provisional data cited by Bloomberg.

Historical bullets

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

May-07 18:30
  • RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3  
  • RES 3: 148.27 High Apr 9
  • RES 2: 146.33 50-day EMA and key resistance 
  • RES 1: 145.92 High May 2
  • PRICE: 143.40 @ 16:35 BST May 7
  • SUP 1: 141.97 Low Apr 29   
  • SUP 2: 139.79 1.382 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
  • SUP 3: 138.82 1.500 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
  • SUP 4: 138.07  Low Jul 28 ‘23

The primary trend direction in USDJPY remains bearish and gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.33, remains intact. A clear break of this average would highlight a possible reversal. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79 next, a Fibonacci projection. First key support to watch is 141.97, the Apr 29 low.   

STIR: Contained Reaction To FOMC Announcement

May-07 18:27
  • Having rallied into the FOMC reaction on tariff headlines, rates reaction is relatively contained following the FOMC statement.
  • Fed Funds implied rates are 0.5-3.5bp lower for 2025 meetings.
  • That includes levels that imply 82bp of cuts for 2025 as a whole but that still has near enough an entire 25bp cut omitted vs pre ISM mfg levels from Thursday.
  • Cumulative cuts from an assumed 4.33% effective: 7.5bp Jun, 24bp Jul, 45bp Sep, 63bp Oct and 82bp Dec.
  • SOFR implied yields are up to 3bps lower post-announcement, led by the Mar 2026.
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US TSY OPTIONS: Jun'25 10Y Call Sale

May-07 18:23
  • -11,500 TYM5 113 calls, 11 ref 111-16

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